The Hillsboro Aquatic Centre has an indoor pool with lanes forlap swimming and an open area for recreational swimming and variousexercise and water aerobics programs. From 1 June to mid-August itoperates on a summer schedule, and from mid-August to the end ofMay it operates according to normal weekday and weekend schedules.The centre’s policy for the pool is to have a lifeguard-to-patronratio of 1:40. The centre director wants to develop a forecast ofpool attendance for the weekday schedule in order to determine thenumber of lifeguards to hire. The following data for average dailyattendance for each hour of the day that the pool is open to thepublic (i.e., there are no swim team practices):
| Year |
Time | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
7:00 A.M | 56 | 64 | 66 | 60 | 72 | 65 |
8:00 | 31 | 41 | 37 | 44 | 52 | 46 |
9:00 | 15 | 22 | 24 | 30 | 19 | 26 |
10:00 | 34 | 35 | 38 | 31 | 28 | 33 |
11:00 | 45 | 52 | 55 | 49 | 57 | 50 |
Noon | 63 | 71 | 57 | 65 | 75 | 70 |
1:00 P.M | 35 | 30 | 41 | 42 | 33 | 45 |
2:00 | 24 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 35 | 33 |
3:00 | 27 | 19 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
6:00 | 31 | 47 | 36 | 45 | 40 | 46 |
7:00 | 25 | 35 | 41 | 43 | 39 | 45 |
8:00 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 27 |
9:00 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 18 |
Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these data forhourly pool attendance. Forecast attendance for each hour for year7 by using a linear trend line estimate for pool attendance in year7. Do the data appear to have a seasonal pattern?
