Grow Corp is a medium sized Commodity Producer. It is already involved with industries such as...

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Grow Corp is a medium sized Commodity Producer. It is alreadyinvolved with industries such as oil and gas, forest products andgold exploration. Grow Corp operates in Australasia as well asNorth America and the company exports everywhere in the world. TheGeneral Manager of Grow Corp, Mr Tandori Nanczos, is very much infavour of expanding operations into new markets and is consideringdeveloping a new plant that will specialise in the production ofCannabis for medicinal and legitimate business activities.Legitimate Cannabis cultivation for industrial hemp is estimated toyield up to $800 per Acre. Mr Tandori Nanczos is considering theimplementation of the following strategy in order to produce hempfor the domestic market. Strategy HEMP involves the traditionalmethod of purchasing a block of land in central Victoria andestablishing the site for productive measures. Mario Williams, aFinancial Analyst, has prepared estimates of the initialinvestment, the Net Cash inflows associated with each method giventwo future possible states of the world. RISK AND RETURNHEMP PRODUCTION BEST CASE HEMP PRODUCTION WORST CASE InitialInvestment (t=0) $3,750,000 $3,750,000 Year (t) Cash Inflows CashInflows 1 $1,126,000 $975,000 2 $1,351,200 $1,121,250 3 $1,621,440$1,255,800 4 $1,945,728 $1,368,822 5 $2,237,587 $1,450,951Probability (Event) 0.60 0.40 Note that Mario plans to analyse eachalternative over a five-year period. At the end of that time, theequipment required for each method would be sold, thus accountingfor the large final year Cash Inflow. Mario believes that, due tothe operation will have no impact on the firm’s overall risk. Itis, therefore, decided to use the firms’ 12% Cost of Capital whenanalysing the proposed project. Mario would like you to estimatethe following: (a) Expected Net Present Value (b) StandardDeviation (c) Coefficient of Variation

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4.3 Ratings (935 Votes)

PROBABILITY 0.60:
Year Cash flow PV at 12% PV at 12%
0 -3750000 1 $     -37,50,000
1 1126000 0.89286 $       10,05,357
2 1351200 0.79719 $       10,77,168
3 1621440 0.71178 $       11,54,109
4 1945728 0.63552 $       12,36,545
5 2237587 0.56743 $       12,69,667
NPV $       19,92,847
PROBABILITY 0.40:
Year Cash flow PV at 12% PV at 12%
0 -3750000 1 $     -37,50,000
1 975000 0.89286 $         8,70,536
2 1121250 0.79719 $         8,93,854
3 1255800 0.71178 $         8,93,854
4 1368822 0.63552 $         8,69,911
5 1450951 0.56743 $         8,23,309
NPV $         6,01,463
a) Expected NPV:
Probability
0.6 0.4
NPV $                     19,92,847 $                                6,01,463
Expected NPV = 1992847*0.6+601463*0.4 = $       14,36,293
b) Deviation from Mean [d] $                       5,56,553 $                               -8,34,831
d^2 $     3,09,75,16,32,158 $              6,96,94,23,38,496
p*d^2 $     1,85,85,09,79,295 $              2,78,77,69,35,398
SD = (185850979295+278776935398)^0.5 = $                                6,81,636
c) Coefficient of variation = 681636/1436293 = 0.47

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Grow Corp is a medium sized Commodity Producer. It is alreadyinvolved with industries such as oil and gas, forest products andgold exploration. Grow Corp operates in Australasia as well asNorth America and the company exports everywhere in the world. TheGeneral Manager of Grow Corp, Mr Tandori Nanczos, is very much infavour of expanding operations into new markets and is consideringdeveloping a new plant that will specialise in the production ofCannabis for medicinal and legitimate business activities.Legitimate Cannabis cultivation for industrial hemp is estimated toyield up to $800 per Acre. Mr Tandori Nanczos is considering theimplementation of the following strategy in order to produce hempfor the domestic market. Strategy HEMP involves the traditionalmethod of purchasing a block of land in central Victoria andestablishing the site for productive measures. Mario Williams, aFinancial Analyst, has prepared estimates of the initialinvestment, the Net Cash inflows associated with each method giventwo future possible states of the world. RISK AND RETURNHEMP PRODUCTION BEST CASE HEMP PRODUCTION WORST CASE InitialInvestment (t=0) $3,750,000 $3,750,000 Year (t) Cash Inflows CashInflows 1 $1,126,000 $975,000 2 $1,351,200 $1,121,250 3 $1,621,440$1,255,800 4 $1,945,728 $1,368,822 5 $2,237,587 $1,450,951Probability (Event) 0.60 0.40 Note that Mario plans to analyse eachalternative over a five-year period. At the end of that time, theequipment required for each method would be sold, thus accountingfor the large final year Cash Inflow. Mario believes that, due tothe operation will have no impact on the firm’s overall risk. Itis, therefore, decided to use the firms’ 12% Cost of Capital whenanalysing the proposed project. Mario would like you to estimatethe following: (a) Expected Net Present Value (b) StandardDeviation (c) Coefficient of Variation

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