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  3. x y/1 y/0 years exp successful unsccessful tota

X Y/1 Y/0 Years Exp Successful Unsccessful total 4 17 83 100 8 40 60 100 12 50 50 100 16 56 44 100 20 96 4 100 The data in tab #2 pertain to the years of experience of project managers and...

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Basic Math

XY/1Y/0
Years ExpSuccessfulUnsccessfultotal
41783100
84060100
125050100
165644100
20964100

The data in tab #2 pertain to the years of experience of projectmanagers and the numbers of successes and failures they have had onmajor projects. Use the data set given in tab #2 in the attachedExcel workbook and logistic regression to find the following:

The probability of success given 10 years of experience is:.

The probability of failure given 18 years of experience is:.  

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert
3.7 Ratings (690 Votes)

x p log (p/(1-p))
4 0.17 -1.585627264
8 0.4 -0.405465108
12 0.5 0
16 0.56 0.241162057
20 0.96 3.17805383
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.912588605
R Square 0.832817963
Adjusted R Square 0.777090617
Standard Error 0.832243508
Observations 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 10.35101 10.35100594 14.94451 0.030613
Residual 3 2.077888 0.692629256
Total 4 12.42889
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -2.766572103 0.872864 -3.169532686 0.050499 -5.54442 0.011272 -5.54442 0.011272
x 0.254349734 0.065795 3.865813184 0.030613 0.044962 0.463738 0.044962 0.463738

ln(p/(1-p)) = -2.7665 + 0.2544 * x

x ln(p/(1-p) p
10 -0.223074765 0.444461
18 1.811723106 0.85957

The probability of success given 10 years of experience is: .

= 0.4445

The probability of failure given 18 years of experience is: .

= 1-0.85957

= 0.14043
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