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What do we want to learn about the flu vaccination problem and why?

b. World

The World is the United States.

Write: What attributes of the United States are important that might be different in other areas of the world for understanding the flu/vaccination problem?[13 sentences]

c. Organization

You are a hospital wanting to understand what burden of disease to expect in the coming year. While the past is not identical to the future (as the pandemic has taught us), it gives a sense.

In this scenario, the hospital will want to know, given an outbreak, what proportion will get sick (and come to the hospital), and how much they will cost the hospital, on average.

Write: The county you (personally) live in

Write: Why might a hospital want these numbers? [13 sentences]

d. Role

You are the hospital administrator

Write: What outcomes are of most importance to this role? [13 sentences]

e. Functions

We have said the administrator is looking to prepare for the coming year, so the function is Readiness Preparation

f. Workflow

Once the administrator knows these numbers, hospital leadership will convene to decide on strategies (resource allocation) for preparing for the outbreak.

Question Analysis

With this background, we tackle the two core questions: (1) How many patients will be admitted and (2) How sick will they be? We will tackle both.

(1) How many patients will be admitted?

The number of patients admitted = (a) Number at risk x (b) Risk of admission for flu

(i) Clinically, we think about what patients at high risk and who are at low risk. However, our data sources (see below) give population-wide numbers, so we dont have to be so detailed.

(ii) For Risk of Flu, we will consult our first data source, HealthData.gov

Follow the link. Type influenza into the Search Box and click Apply. The panel on the left will show you what Categories (under Authority) are available. Click on Show All...; click on State

Write: The name of the relevant State [County] Resource

Open the resource

Download the spreadsheet: Click on the TEXT/CSV button

Open the spreadsheet (e.g., in Excel)

Sort the 70,000+ rows by Season (descending), County (ascending), and Week (ascending),

In the 2018-2019 Season (i.e., pre-covid), locate your County

Write: The name of the relevant tag under Diseases & Conditions

Write: In what week number is flu the most widespread?

Write: The number of lab-confirmed cases

Write: How does knowing this worst week help our hospital administrator?

Now we want to see how lab-confirmed cases translate into hospitalizations.

FLUView is CDCs interactive influenza surveillance report.

Go to FLUView.

Scroll down to Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations. Click on the title.

Now in 4. Hospitalization Surveillance, scroll down. Click on hospitalization rates for multiple seasons and different age groups

Under the banner, Rates of Influenza Hospitalization, go the to left. Click on Weekly rate radio button, and, where is says, Age Group, click the down arrow to select Season.

Locate the 2018-19 season (either by color or by deselecting All Seasons and then selecting 2018-19

Write: The Week Number that is the maximum

Write: How does this number compare with what you found in the spreadsheet?

Back at the radio buttons on the left, click on Cumulative Rate

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