Using the data provided: Plot the data. What does the plot tell you about the appropriateness of...

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Statistics

Using the data provided:
Plot the data. What does the plot tell you about theappropriateness of using a trend and seasonally adjusted model foryour data?
Develop a forecast model that incorporates both a trend andseasonal adjustment (even if its not necessarily there).
Develop a forecast for the four periods beyond your data.
Calculate a MAD and Bias based on the last 12 periods of knowndata. What do the MAD and bias indicate about your model?
Overall, are you satisfied with your model? If so, why? If not,suggest some things that could be done to improve your model.
data:
Year Quarter Revenue
1999 Qtr1 1,939
Qtr2 2,373
Qtr3 2,651
Qtr4 3,111
2000 Qtr1 3,187
Qtr2 3,634
Qtr3 3,702
Qtr4 3,738
2001 Qtr1 3,627
Qtr2 3,916
Qtr3 3,588
Qtr4 2,932
2002 Qtr1 2,931
Qtr2 3,556
Qtr3 3,812
Qtr4 4,085
2003 Qtr1 4,570
Qtr2 4,189
Qtr3 4,594
Qtr4 4,576
2004 Qtr1 5,245
Qtr2 6,276
Qtr3 6,558
Qtr4 7,420
2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
Qtr1 5,245 4,570 2,931 3,627 3,187 1,933
Qtr2 6,276 4,189 3,556 3,916 3,634 2,373
Qtr3 6,558 4,594 3,812 3,588 3,702 2,651
Qtr4 7,429 4,576 4,085 2,932 3,738 3,111
Year 25,508 17,929 14,384 14,063 14,300 10,068

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert

4.3 Ratings (745 Votes)

Plot of the Raw DataI dont find any seasonality effect in the data Definitelythere is a trend So my choice is Holts method We can implementHolts method in Minitab or any other software or in Excelspreadsheet I prefer ExcelAlpha 099Beta 01PeriodRevenueYtAtTtPeriodaheadForecastAbsolute ErrorAbsolute See Answer

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*Year*	*Quarter*	*Revenue*
1999	Qtr1	1,939
	Qtr2	2,373
	Qtr3	2,651
	Qtr4	3,111
2000	Qtr1	3,187
	Qtr2	3,634
	Qtr3	3,702
	Qtr4	3,738
2001	Qtr1	3,627
	Qtr2	3,916
	Qtr3	3,588
	Qtr4	2,932
2002	Qtr1	2,931
	Qtr2	3,556
	Qtr3	3,812
	Qtr4	4,085
2003	Qtr1	4,570
	Qtr2	4,189
	Qtr3	4,594
	Qtr4	4,576
2004	Qtr1	5,245
	Qtr2	6,276
	Qtr3	6,558
	Qtr4	7,420

	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999
Qtr1	5,245	4,570	2,931	3,627	3,187	1,933
Qtr2	6,276	4,189	3,556	3,916	3,634	2,373
Qtr3	6,558	4,594	3,812	3,588	3,702	2,651
Qtr4	7,429	4,576	4,085	2,932	3,738	3,111
Year	25,508	17,929	14,384	14,063	14,300	10,068