US u in October 2022 was 3.7%. The Conference Board forecasts 2022 Real GDP growth...
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US u in October 2022 was 3.7%. The Conference Board forecasts 2022 Real GDP growth will come in at 1.8% year-over-year (yoy) and that 2023 growth will slow to 0% yoy. Lets assume that the US trend rate of growth, gy bar, is 3% (annualized; text, p. 180). (See https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast#:~:text=This%20outlook%20is%20associated%20with,percent%20year%2Dover%2Dyear.)
a. Use the Okuns Law (OL) graph and equation to predict what will happen to the US u given the data above; that is, will u rise, fall or stay at 3.7%? No calculation necessary. Explain.
b. Noting the current tight labour market (that is contributing to through the wage-price spiral), many analysts have suggested that the US should adopt a more lenient immigration program. Cet. par., what would this do to the OL graph? [Hint: what are the components of gy bar?]
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