Uncertainty in intelligence analysis remains an important issuefor consideration. Intelligence customers want, and often expectcertainty in intelligence products, yet the nature of intelligenceproduction often precludes establishment of such a product. Becauseof this, intelligence analysts are left to struggle with ways ofexpressing uncertainty. Imagine you are an analyst tasked withanswering the question \"will India and Pakistan go to war withinthe next 12 months?\" You've gathered the available information,both intelligence information and open source information. You'vedone the analysis and reached a conclusion. You've decided, using avariety of analytic techniques, that there is a chance of war, andyou have decided that it's a better than even chance, but less thancertain. For the sake of discussion, let's say that if you had toexpress that likelihood in terms of percentages, you'd estimate a65% chance of war. How would you inform your customer of yourconclusions? Would you say \"there's a 65% chance?\" Or would yourefrain from nailing down a specific probability and answer in someother way? Defend your answer.
