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Torecast cash flows. page 276 3. Sensitivity analysis Otobai's staff (see Section 10-1) has come up with the following revised estimates for the electric scooter project: Optimistic Pessimistic % change in capital investment -20.00 60.00 % change in working capital -50.00 50.00 % change in units sold 25.00 -20.00 % change in price 20.00 -25.00 Cost of goods sold as % of sales 40.00 75.00 % change in fixed costs -50.00 70.00 Conduct a sensitivity analysis using the spreadsh (available in Connect). What are the princ E. uncertainties in the project? 4. Sensitivity analysis The Rustic Welt Company in going ahead, but before you decide, you want to delve into these forecasts and identify the key variables that determine whether the project succeeds or fails. 0 -15.00 1 0.0 2 0.0 3 0.0 Cash Flow in Years 4 5 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 7 0.0 8 0.0 9 0.0 10 0.0 -4.10 -1.30 -0.20 -0.30 -0.20 0.40 1.60 1.90 1.80 1.20 6,800 10,000 16,000 21,500 24,000 25,400 23,400 16,000 10,500 6,000 1.50 1.55 1.59 1.64 1.69 1 .74 1.80 1.85 1.80 1.75 10.20 5.10 15.50 7.75 25.44 12.72 35.26 17.63 40.56 20.28 44.20 22.10 42.12 21.06 29.60 14.80 18.90 9.45 10.50 5.25 1 Cash flow from investment in plant and equipment 2 Cash flow from investment in working capital 3 Number of units sold 4 Unit Price (4 millions) 5 Revenue (3 x 4) 6 Cost of goods sold (50% of revenuel 7 Fixed costs 8 Depreciation 9 Pretax profit (5-6-7-8) 10 Tax at 40% 11 Profit after tax (9-10) 12 Operating cash flow (8 + 11) 13 Net cash flow (1+2+12) 14 Present value (at 20%) NPV 3.00 5 4.40 1.50 -0.80 4.53 1.50 1.72 4.67 1.50 6.55 4.81 1.50 11.32 4.95 1.50 13.83 5.10 1.50 15.50 5.25 1.50 14.31 5.41 1.50 7.89 .57 1.50 2.38 5.74 1.50 -1.99 -3.00 -1.20 -1.80 -0.32 -0.48 0.69 1.03 2.62 4.53 5.53 3.936.798.30 6.20 9.30 5.72 8.58 0.95 1.43 -0.80 -1.19 4.73 -1.80 1.02 293 0.31 2.53 5.43 1.235.23 8.299.80 7.999.60 10.80 10.40 10.08 11.68 6.23 8.13 -16.80 -3.08 4.73 1.51 -16.80 -2.57 0.85 3.03 3.85 3.86 3.48 3.26 1.89 0.92 0.24 2.02 > TABLE 10.1 Preliminary cash-flow forecasts for Otobai's electric scooter project (figures in | billions unless stated otherwise) The proiect requires an initial investment of 15 billion in

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