This case study concerns a bank's efforts to calculate creditrisk scores (These are opposite of credit scores. Higher the valuethe riskier the customer) A loan officer at a bank needs to be ableto identify characteristics that are indicative of people who arelikely to default on loans and use those characteristics toidentify good and bad credit risks. The loan officer also needs tobe able to better quantify an individual’s credit risk level.
Information on 700 past customers is given in the file alongwith data for the following variables:
Age: customer age in years.
Employment: years that the customer has beenwith his/her current employer
Address: years that the customer has lived athis/her current address
Income: household annual income (in $1,000)
Debt _to _Income: debt to income ratio(x100)
Risk _Score: Credit risk score (the higher thescore, the more risky)
Default _Indicator: an indicator of whether thecustomer had previously defaulted
Test the hypothesis that the average credit risk score ofcustomers who have previously defaulted on their loans is higherthan those who haven’t defaulted on their loans. (Divide the creditrisk score into two groups those who previously defaulted and thosewho didn’t and then compare the two groups.)
You would like to build a regression model to predict the creditrisk score based on all the other variables. What is the regressionequation?
What is the predicted credit risk score of a customer aged 40,who has been with their employer for 10 years, has lived at thesame address for 3 years, has an income of $200,000, debt to incomeratio of 2.5 and has previously defaulted on a loan. Will theprediction be accurate? Explain
Compute the coefficient of determination (R2) and fullyinterpret its meaning.
Interpret the meaning of the coefficients of the independentvariables income and address.
Which independent variables significant? Defend your answer.
Age in years | Years with current employer | Years at current address | Household income in thousands | Debt to income ratio (x100) | Previously Defaulted | Credit Risk Score |
41 | 17 | 12 | 176 | 9.3 | 1 | 808.3943274 |
27 | 10 | 6 | 31 | 17.3 | 0 | 198.2974762 |
40 | 15 | 14 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 | 10.0361081 |
41 | 15 | 14 | 120 | 2.9 | 0 | 22.13828376 |
24 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 17.3 | 1 | 781.5883142 |
41 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 10.2 | 0 | 216.7089415 |
39 | 20 | 9 | 67 | 30.6 | 0 | 185.9601084 |
43 | 12 | 11 | 38 | 3.6 | 0 | 14.70865349 |
24 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 24.4 | 1 | 748.0412036 |
36 | 0 | 13 | 25 | 19.7 | 0 | 815.0570131 |
27 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.7 | 0 | 350.309226 |
25 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 5.2 | 0 | 239.0539023 |
52 | 24 | 14 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 9.790173473 |
37 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 16.3 | 0 | 364.4940475 |
48 | 22 | 15 | 100 | 9.1 | 0 | 11.87390385 |
36 | 9 | 6 | 49 | 8.6 | 1 | 96.70407786 |
36 | 13 | 6 | 41 | 16.4 | 1 | 212.0503906 |
43 | 23 | 19 | 72 | 7.6 | 0 | 1.404870603 |
39 | 6 | 9 | 61 | 5.7 | 0 | 104.1453903 |
41 | 0 | 21 | 26 | 1.7 | 0 | 91.9180135 |
39 | 22 | 3 | 52 | 3.2 | 0 | 4.373536462 |
47 | 17 | 21 | 43 | 5.6 | 0 | 3.047352362 |
28 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 293.9321797 |
29 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 9.8 | 0 | 106.7996198 |
21 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 1 | 629.7774553 |
25 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 17.6 | 0 | 861.3134014 |
45 | 9 | 26 | 69 | 6.7 | 0 | 16.46115799 |
43 | 25 | 21 | 64 | 16.7 | 0 | 1.437993467 |
33 | 12 | 8 | 58 | 18.4 | 0 | 276.7066755 |
26 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 14.2 | 0 | 503.3218674 |
45 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 2.1 | 0 | 76.41958523 |
30 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 10.5 | 0 | 433.6994251 |
27 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 288.7388759 |
25 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 14.4 | 0 | 231.1006843 |
25 | 8 | 1 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 | 74.95719559 |
26 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 26 | 0 | 950.0535168 |
30 | 10 | 4 | 22 | 16.1 | 0 | 211.9564036 |
32 | 12 | 1 | 54 | 14.4 | 0 | 335.9969153 |
28 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 17.1 | 1 | 643.9032953 |
45 | 23 | 5 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 | 2.268753579 |
23 | 7 | 2 | 31 | 6.6 | 0 | 132.8782071 |
34 | 17 | 3 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 31.76854323 |
42 | 7 | 23 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | 31.90347933 |
39 | 19 | 5 | 48 | 13.1 | 0 | 28.07933138 |
26 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7.5 | 1 | 511.04996 |
21 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6.8 | 0 | 453.6168743 |
35 | 13 | 15 | 35 | 4.5 | 0 | 10.78188877 |
47 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 10.4 | 0 | 281.6573725 |
23 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 11.4 | 1 | 621.7847698 |