This activity has the purpose of assessing the students knowledge how to make a time series...

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General Management

This activity has the purpose of assessing the studentsknowledge how to make a time series forecast using quantitativemodels.
1. The following data represents the average “deliveryspeed” to fulfill customer’s orders in a hypothetical organization.In period 10, changes were made onthe fulfillment process, as a result of an improvement SixSigma initiative.
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Delivery Speed (Days) 5 6 8 4 6 7 6 6 7 8
Period 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Delivery Speed (Days) 6 4 5 6 5 4 8 4 7 4
2.Explain if the change made in Period 10 was sound. 3.What is your forecast of delivery-speed in Period21. You have to choose a model (considerat least three models and using the MAD explain which is thebest.)

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The nature of the plot suggests that there is no significantreduction in the number of days after period 10 in that afterperiod 16 the number of days has again increased So thecountermeasure taken seems ineffectiveThe time See Answer

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Period	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Delivery Speed (Days)	5	6	8	4	6	7	6	6	7	8
Period	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Delivery Speed (Days)	6	4	5	6	5	4	8	4	7	4