The manager of a travel agency asked you to come up with aforecasting technique that will best fit to the actual demand forpackaged tours. You have observed and recorded the actual demandfor the last 10 periods. You also identified two possibletechniques for consideration: 2-month moving averages (F1), andexponential smoothing (F2) with a smoothing constant of 0.40. UsingCumulative Forecasting Error (CFE) and Mean Absolute Deviation(MAD) as your performance measures you will determine the techniquethat will best fit to the actual demand data provided in thefollowing table.
  
STEP 1: Given start forecast values in period 3,compute forecast values from period 4 to 10. You are asked toprovide the forecast values for period 6 and 10 for bothtechniques.

		2-Month MA	Exponential
Period	Demand	F1	F2
1	128	--	--
2	172	--	--
3	89	150	129
4	143
5	72
6	140
7	129
8	140
9	98
10	174

  
  
STEP 2: Using data from period 3 to period10,
  
Provide the performance measures for F1 technique:
  
            CFE=                         MAD=  
  
Provide the performance measures for F2 technique:
  
            CFE=             MAD=  
  
Based on these measures, which technique best fit to your data?(Enter F1 or F2) =  
NOTE: All computed forecast values should berounded to the nearest integer (no decimal, for example 190).Performance measures (CFE and MAD) must be rounded to the nearesthundredth (two decimals after the dot, for example 30.99).