The city of Bloomington is about to build a new water treatmentplant. Once the plant is designed (D) we can select the site (S),the building contractor (C and the operating personnel (P). Oncethe site is selected we may erect the building (B). We can orderthe water treatment machine (W) and prepare the operations manual(M) only after the contractor is selected. We can begin trainingthe operators (T) when both the operations manual and operatingpersonnel selected are completed. When the watertreatment and building are finished, we can install the treatmentmachine (I). Once the treatment machine is installed and theoperators are trained, we can obtain an operating license (L). Thetime to complete each activity is assumed to be a normaldistribution and the estimated mean and standard deviation of thetime (in months) needed to complete each activity is definedbelow:
ACTIVITY | DESCRIPTION | MEAN | STANDARD DEVIATION |
D | Design plant | 6 | 1.5 |
S | Select site | 2 | 0.3 |
C | Select Building Contractor | 4 | 1.0 |
P | Select Operating Personnel | 3 | 1.0 |
B | Erect Building | 24 | 0.6 |
W | Order Water Treatment machinery | 14 | 4.0 |
M | Prepare Operations Manual | 3 | 0.4 |
T | Train Operators | 4 | 1.0 |
I | Install Treatment Machine | 6 | 1.0 |
L | Obtain Operator License | 3 | 6.0 |
- Draw the PERT network for the project
- Calculate the critical path and estimated completion time ofthe project
- Using this estimated completion time, determine the probabilityof completing the project in (1) under 50 months and (2) over 55months
- Use simulation to calculate the estimated completion time andto determine the probability of completing the project in (1) under50 months and (2) over 55 months (use a monte carlo simulation of200 repetitions)
- Explain why the answers to questions (b) and (c ) may differ tothat determined in question (d).
- Use simulation to estimate the probability that B, I and T arecritical activities
