| The Barbary Pirates Case | | |
| Questions: Who do you think is correct? Adam or Jefferson? Why? | | |
| What are the major uncertainties in this decision problem and how it may influence your decision? | |
| Should the US build a Navy based on these discussions? Why or why not? | |
| | Adams Position | |
| Negotiate for safe passage | Do nothing | War |
| maximum 500,000 (possible 300,000 or even 200,000) | 6-8% insurance expense on imports and exports | At least 500,000 a year without protecting trade |
| 6% interest (30,000 or as low as 10,000) | 100% loss of Mediterranean and Levant trades | We ought not fight them at all unless we determine to fight them forever" |
| | 50% loss of Portugal and Spain Trade | If lost the war, still have to pay the pirates |
| | Minimum 500,000 | |
| | | |
| | Adams Decision Tree | |
| Build Navy and Fight At least 500,000 | Do not Build Navy, Negotiate | Do nothing - High |
| | 500,000 or Less based on negotiation | |
| | | |
| | Jeffersons View | |
| Believes it is proper and necessary to | Need Navy no matter what | Jefferson advocates going to war |
| establish a small marine force in peaceful and | | |
| turbulent times | | |
| | | |
| | Jeffersons Cost Calculation | |
| Building the fleet: 450,000 pounds | Annual operating expense to keep the fleet in order | Annual operating expense during times of peace |
| Not relevant in the current situation (Why?) | for service: 45,000 pounds | Half of fleet should be in constant cruise |
| | (300 pounds sterling per gun * fleet of 150 guns) | Navy kept in order for service in dockyards |
| | | Cost half as much annually as in time of war 22,500 pounds |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| Adams | Jefferson | |
| - Thought we should pay the Barbary States for peace. | - Thought the development of naval fleet was the way | |
| - Presented his cost data to make the buy out for | to handle the piracy problem. | |
| peace a more attractive option versus developing a | - Presented his cost data with Adams thoughts in | |
| naval fleet. | mind, but looked further into the actual and relevant | |
| - Thought process some what narrow mindedand not | costs of a navy. | |
| very forward thinking | - Looked at the bigger picture of the situation and how | |
| | buying our peace with the Barbary States might | |
| | affect the US over time. | |
| | | |
| | Jefferson's Decision Tree after reduction of dominated choices |
| Build Navy 450 K | Do not | |
| Fight 22.5 K per year (10 years?) | Do noting (Big Loss) | |
| Negotiate 300K (for 10 years ?) | | |
