The ability to scale up renewable energy and in particular windpower and speed is dependent on the ability to forecast its shortterm availability soman et al (2010( describe different methods forwind power forecasting (the quote is slightly edited forbrevity)
Persistence method: this method is also known as ‘naïvepredictor. Its is assumed that the wind speed at time t + tetatwill be the same as it was at time t. unbelievably it is moreaccurate than most of the physical and statistical methods for veryshort to short term forecasts.
Physical approach: physical systems. Use parameterizations basedon a detailed physical description of the atmosphere
Statistical approach: the statistical approach is based ontraining with measurement data and uses difference between thepredicted and the actual wind speeds in immediate past to tunemodel parameters. It is easy to model, inexpensive, predefinedmathematical model and rather it is based on patterns
Hybrid approach: In general, the combination of differentapproaches such as mixing physical and statistical approaches orcombining short term and medium term models etc is referred to as ahybrid approach.
- For each of the four types of methods, describe whether it ismodel- based, data -driven, or a combination.
- For each of the four types of methods, describe whether it isbased on extrapolation, causal modeling, correlation modeling or acombination.
- Describe the advantages and disadvantages of the hybridapproach
