Siberian Charter Adventures is an independent Canadian companyfocused on providing unique charter tours to Siberia. The companyhas averaged between 1,000 and 1,500 tourists per month, and theoperations manager wants to develop a forecast model to aid inplanning. The operations manager has provided you with historicaltourist data for the 24 months in 2014 and 2015.
- Download the accompanying data file (MGSC369_R6_A4_datafile)and prepare a set of forecasts for each of the following threemethods. Please read the instructions in the ExcelTMfile carefully before you begin. Note that the forecasts can becreated using Microsoft Excel, and you should submit yourspreadsheet with your assignment for grading
Month | Actual Demand (# of Tourists) |
Jan-14 | 1344 |
Feb-14 | 1339 |
Mar-14 | 1415 |
Apr-14 | 1213 |
May-14 | 1412 |
Jun-14 | 1318 |
Jul-14 | 1018 |
Aug-14 | 1250 |
Sep-14 | 1176 |
Oct-14 | 1062 |
Nov-14 | 1137 |
Dec-14 | 1391 |
Jan-15 | 1192 |
Feb-15 | 1425 |
Mar-15 | 1320 |
Apr-15 | 1256 |
May-15 | 1288 |
Jun-15 | 1420 |
Jul-15 | 1478 |
Aug-15 | 1198 |
Sep-15 | 1203 |
Oct-15 | 1002 |
Nov-15 | 1246 |
Dec-15 | 1339 |
a) Three-month moving average
b) Exponential smoothing based on what you believe to be anappropriate alpha constant. Provide a brief justification
c) Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing based on what youbelieve to be appropriate alpha and beta constants. Provide a briefjustification for your choices.
- Complete the following error summary table of the threeforecasts, and then comment on the results. Identify which forecastmethod you believe the company should adopt.
| MAD | MSE | MAPE |
three-month moving average | | | |
Exponential smoothing | | | |
Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing | | | |
