Say the level of the market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently...

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Say the level of the market as measured by the Dow JonesIndustrial Average is currently at 12,000. A forecaster has made aprediction of 13,300 for the level of the market in one year, alongwith a 95% confidence interval whose lower bound is 12,500 andwhose upper bound is 14,500. You know from experience that thisparticular forecaster tends to be both excessively optimistic andmiscalibrated. Describe how you might debias this individual. Givea numerical example (making up relevant numbers asappropriate).

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The Dow Jones industrial is currently at 12000 a forecaster has made a prediction of 13300 for the level in one year At 95 confidence interval the lower bound is 12500 and upper bond is 14500 No one can predict the See Answer

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Say the level of the market as measured by the Dow JonesIndustrial Average is currently at 12,000. A forecaster has made aprediction of 13,300 for the level of the market in one year, alongwith a 95% confidence interval whose lower bound is 12,500 andwhose upper bound is 14,500. You know from experience that thisparticular forecaster tends to be both excessively optimistic andmiscalibrated. Describe how you might debias this individual. Givea numerical example (making up relevant numbers asappropriate).