River Kisigo flows through an area next to a medium sized city into river Rufiji. During...

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  1. River Kisigo flows through an area next to a medium sized cityinto river Rufiji. During recent years, annual floods have damagedhomes in its vicinity at an increased' rate. Average annual flooddamages have been estimated to be Tshs 180M at present and areexpected to increase by Tshs 12M each year. To contain excessiverunoff two proposals have been made. One is to do some channelimprovement (CI). Another proposal is to build a storage dam andsmall reservoir (D&R). Initial cost of CI is Tshs 240M andannual maintenance is expected to be Tshs 18M. Initial cost ofD&R is Tshs 960M, annual operation and maintenance is estimatedto be Tshs 27M. If the CI is made, average annual flood damages areexpected to be Tshs 108M at present and to increase by Tshs 7.2Meach year. If the D&R is built, average annual flood damagesare expected to be reduced to Tshs 18M at present and to increaseby Tshs 3M each year. The D&R will remove certain land fromagriculture and possible future development. This dis-benefit,valued at Tshs 20M per year, is partially offset by improvedrecreational fishing valued at Tshs 10M per year. Using an interestrate of 12% and benefit /cost analysis establish which proposalshould be chosen. Make your own assumptions regarding theclassification of costs and benefits/consequences.

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3.8 Ratings (665 Votes)

ASSUMPTION:
CONSIDER 12YEAR HORIZON OF THE ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS OF CHANNEL IMPROVEMENT (CI)
Discount Rate=12%=0.12
N Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A Average annual flood damage without CI 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312
B Average annual flood damage WITH CI 108 115.2 122.4 129.6 136.8 144 151.2 158.4 165.6 172.8 180 187.2
C=A-B Annual Benefit 72 76.8 81.6 86.4 91.2 96 100.8 105.6 110.4 115.2 120 124.8
D Annual Maintenance 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
E=C-D Net Annual Benefit 54 58.8 63.6 68.4 73.2 78 82.8 87.6 92.4 97.2 102 106.8 SUM
PW=E/(1.12^N) Present Worth of Benefit 48.2143 46.8750 45.2692 43.4694 41.5356 39.5172 37.4545 35.3802 33.3204 31.2958 29.3226 27.4129 459.0671
Present Worth Total Benefits 459.0671
Initial Cost 240
Benefit Cost Ratio 1.912779719
ANALYSIS OF STORAGE DAM & RESERVOIR (D&R)
Discount Rate=12%=0.12
N Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
A Average annual flood damage without CI 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312
B Average annual flood damage WITH CI 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
C=A-B Annual Benefit 162 171 180 189 198 207 216 225 234 243 252 261
D Annual Maintenance 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
E Net Disbenefit for removal of land development(20-10) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
F=C-D-E Net Annual Benefit 125 134 143 152 161 170 179 188 197 206 215 224 SUM
PW=E/(1.12^N) Present Worth of Benefit 111.6071 106.8240 101.7846 96.5987 91.3557 86.1273 80.9705 75.9300 71.0402 66.3265 61.8074 57.4952 1007.8673
Present Worth Total Benefits 1007.8673
Initial Cost 960
Benefit Cost Ratio 1.049861731
CHANNELIMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE CHOSEN
It has higher Benefit/Cost Ratio

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River Kisigo flows through an area next to a medium sized cityinto river Rufiji. During recent years, annual floods have damagedhomes in its vicinity at an increased' rate. Average annual flooddamages have been estimated to be Tshs 180M at present and areexpected to increase by Tshs 12M each year. To contain excessiverunoff two proposals have been made. One is to do some channelimprovement (CI). Another proposal is to build a storage dam andsmall reservoir (D&R). Initial cost of CI is Tshs 240M andannual maintenance is expected to be Tshs 18M. Initial cost ofD&R is Tshs 960M, annual operation and maintenance is estimatedto be Tshs 27M. If the CI is made, average annual flood damages areexpected to be Tshs 108M at present and to increase by Tshs 7.2Meach year. If the D&R is built, average annual flood damagesare expected to be reduced to Tshs 18M at present and to increaseby Tshs 3M each year. The D&R will remove certain land fromagriculture and possible future development. This dis-benefit,valued at Tshs 20M per year, is partially offset by improvedrecreational fishing valued at Tshs 10M per year. Using an interestrate of 12% and benefit /cost analysis establish which proposalshould be chosen. Make your own assumptions regarding theclassification of costs and benefits/consequences.

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