Reminder: You obtain a positive test result for HIV. There is noreason to believe that you should have a higher prior probabilityof being HIV positive than the average the average person inAustralia. In Australia, about 30,000 people out of 24 millionpeople are HIV positive. The test has a false negative rate of 0.2%(i.e., the probability of obtaining a negative result for a personwho is HIV positive is 0.002) and a false positive rate of 2.5%(i.e., the probability of obtaining a positive result for a personwho is HIV negative is 0.025). After obtaining this test result,what are the posterior odds in favour of you being HIVpositive?
A. 0.001 (this corresponds to odds of about 1 to 911 that you areHIV positive)
B. 0.015 (this corresponds to odds of about 1 to 67 that you areHIV positive)
C. 0.063 (this corresponds to odds of about 1 to 16 that you areHIV positive)
D. 0.072 (this corresponds to odds of about 1 to 14 that you areHIV positive)
E. 0.050 (this corresponds to odds of about 1 to 20 that you areHIV positive)
