Question 1 Notex Manufacturing makes various batteries used in mobile devices. The company has a major customer so batteries...

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Advance Math

Question1
Notex Manufacturingmakes various batteries used in mobile devices. The company has amajor customer so batteries are shipped in bulk to this customer.The company also distributes these batteries to retail stores asreplacement parts. The batteries are packaged individually toretail stores. In all, the company makes about 15 differentbatteries. Currently, the company does not use any forecasting topredict the demand for the batteries. Instead, it has employed ruleof thumb to decide about the volume of the production. This hascaused some issues for the company including stock-out for sometypes of batteries or overstocking for some others. The otherproblem is an increase in the price of raw materials though thecompany believes it is a temporary condition. Due to complaintsfrom suppliers and also customers the company has decided tointroduce a systematic approach toward forecasting.
Therefore, thecompany has decided to forecast two most important products. Thefollowing table (see next page) shows the data on product demandfor the two products from order records for the previous 19months.
Question
Which forecastingmethod/s do you suggest for the two products? Briefly explain why?Forecast for the next month for each product. (Use MAD formeasuring error).
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Product 1
33
37
38
40
42
47
43
49
51
55
62
68
69
70
65
55
50
51
49
Product 2
33
34
35
35
36
36
37
39
81*
38
40
38
39
40
39
40
41
42
41
* Unusual order due to flooding of customer's warehouse.
Question 2
UFE Clubs producesball bearings. The diameter of the ball bearings is very importantfor the quality purposes. The following tables shows the diametersof 6 randomly selected samples. Each sample contains fourobservations.
Observations
Sample
1
2
3
4
1
.604
.612
.588
.600
2
.597
.601
.607
.603
3
.581
.570
.585
.592
4
.620
.605
.595
.588
5
.590
.614
.608
.604
6
.585
.583
.617
.579
a. Is the productionprocess of the ball bearings are under control both in terms ofcentral tendency and dispersion. Show all calculations.
b. A customer forball bearings places an order with diameter of 0.600 +/- 0.050.What is the Process Capability Index? The Process CapabilityRatio?
c. If the firm isseeking four-sigma performance, is the process capable of producingthe ball bearings?

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert

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QUESTION 1he plotting of the data is shown below Based on thetrends we can choose the forecasting methodsFrom the graph we can see that product 1 shows somevariety in trend as the month progress Due to this nature ofvariation in trendThe best method will be to use exponential smoothingor moving average method to forecast the demand for See Answer

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Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Product 1	33	37	38	40	42	47	43	49	51	55	62	68	69	70	65	55	50	51	49
Product 2	33	34	35	35	36	36	37	39	81*	38	40	38	39	40	39	40	41	42	41

	Observations
Sample	1	2	3	4
1	.604	.612	.588	.600
2	.597	.601	.607	.603
3	.581	.570	.585	.592
4	.620	.605	.595	.588
5	.590	.614	.608	.604
6	.585	.583	.617	.579