Quantitative Methods II

This assignment relates to the following Course LearningRequirements:

[CLR 1] Calculate the chance that some specific event will occurat some future time • knowledge of the normal probabilitydistribution

[CLR 2] Perform Sampling Distribution and Estimation

[CLR 3] Conduct Hypothesis Testing

[CLR 4] Understand and calculate Regression and Correlation

Objective of this Assignment:    To conduct aregression and correlation analysis

Instructions:

The term paper involves conducting a regression and correlationanalysis on any topic of your choosing. The paper must be based onyearly data for any economic or business variable, for a period ofat least 20 years

(Note: the source of the data must be given. Data whichis not properly documented as to source is unacceptable and paperwill be graded F. Textbook examples are unacceptable).

The paper can be between 3 to 5 pages (1500 to 2000 words).

The term paper should distinguish between dependent andindependent variables; determine the regression equation by theleast squares method; plot the regression line on a scatterdiagram; interpret the meaning of regression coefficients; use theregression equation to predict values of the dependent variable forselected values of the independent variable and construct forecastintervals and calculate the standard error of estimate,coefficients of determination (r2) and correlation(r) and interpret the meaning of the coefficients(r2) and (r). Your regression andcorrelation analysis must:

1. Graph the data (scatter diagram)

2. Use the method of least squares to derive a trend equationand trend values

3. Use check column to verify computations ∑ (Y-Yc)=0

4. Superimpose trend equation on scatter diagram.

5. Use your model to predict the movement of the variable forthe next year.

6. Compare your predictions with the actual behavior of thevariable during the 21styear .