Problem 16-13 (Algorithmic)
The wedding date for a couple is quickly approaching, and thewedding planner must provide the caterer an estimate of how manypeople will attend the reception so that the appropriate quantityof food is prepared for the buffet. The following table containsinformation on the number of RSVP guests for the 145 invitations.Unfortunately, the number of guests does not always correspond tothe number of RSVPed guests.
Based on her experience, the wedding planner knows it isextremely rare for guests to attend a wedding if they notified thatthey will not be attending. Therefore, the wedding planner willassume that no one from these 50 invitations will attend. Thewedding planner estimates that the each of the 25 guests planningto come solo has a 75% chance of attending alone, a 20% chance ofnot attending, and a 5% chance of bringing a companion. For each ofthe 60 RSVPs who plan to bring a companion, there is a 90% chancethat she or he will attend with a companion, a 5% chance ofattending solo, and a 5% chance of not attending at all. For the 10people who have not responded, the wedding planner assumes thatthere is an 80% chance that each will not attend, a 15% chance eachwill attend alone, and a 5% chance each will attend with acompanion.
| RSVped Guests | Number of invitations |
| 0 | 50 |
| 1 | 25 |
| 2 | 60 |
| No response | 10 |
- Assist the wedding planner by constructing a spreadsheetsimulation model to determine the expected number of guests whowill attend the reception. Round your answer to 2 decimalplaces.
guests
- To be accommodating hosts, the couple has instructed thewedding planner to use the Monte Carlo simulation model todetermine X, the minimum number of guests for which thecaterer should prepare the meal, so that there is at least a 90%chance that the actual attendance is less than or equal toX. What is the best estimate for the value of X? Roundyour answer to the neares whole number.
guests
