Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 16 13 18 11 15 14 Develop a three-week moving average for this time...

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Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 16 13 18 11 15 14
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to twodecimal places.
Week Time Series
Value Forecast
1 16
2 13
3 18
4 11
5 15
6 14

MSE:

The forecast for week 7:
Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothingvalues for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.Round your answers to two decimal places.
Week Time Series
Value Forecast
1 16
2 13
3 18
4 11
5 15
6 14

MSE:

The forecast for week 7:
Use trial and error to find a value of the exponentialsmoothing coefficient alpha that results in a smaller MSE than whatyou calculated for alpha = 0.2. Find a value of alpha for thesmallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.

Alpha = ________
Please solve for part C! Thank you !

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	16
2	13
3	18
4	11
5	15
6	14

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	16
2	13
3	18
4	11
5	15
6	14

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert

3.9 Ratings (578 Votes)

c). Alpha for which MSE is minimized = 0.142

	alpha	0.142
Formula		F2 = A1; Fn = Fn-1 + (a*En-1)	E = A-F	(A-F)^2
Week (n)	Time Series Value (A)	Forecast (F)	Forecast Error ('E)	Sqaured Forecast Error
1	16
2	13	16.00	(3.00)	9.00
3	18	15.57	2.43	5.88
4	11	15.92	(4.92)	24.19
5	15	15.22	(0.22)	0.05
6	14	15.19	(1.19)	1.42
7		15.02
			MSE	8.108

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Transcribed Image Text

Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)Consider the following time series data.Week123456Value161318111514Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to twodecimal places.WeekTime SeriesValueForecast116213318411515614MSE:The forecast for week 7:Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothingvalues for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.Round your answers to two decimal places.WeekTime SeriesValueForecast116213318411515614MSE:The forecast for week 7:Use trial and error to find a value of the exponentialsmoothing coefficient alpha that results in a smaller MSE than whatyou calculated for alpha = 0.2. Find a value of alpha for thesmallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places.Alpha = ________Please solve for part C! Thank you !

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	16	13	18	11	15	14