Please read and summarize the below article in your own words. I...

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Finance

Please read and summarize the below article in your own words.

I rise to provide the annual accounting of the public finances and the economy, to review the performance of the National Budget for the current Fiscal Year 2022/23, and to present Governments Estimate of Revenues and Expenditures for Fiscal Year 2023/24.

The economy is growing, expanding in 2022 by an estimated 12.4 percent, more than 10 times the average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent experienced under the UDP administration. 42,965 workers have received a one dollar and seventy cents or 51 percent per hour salary increase because of the recent increase in the minimum wage to 5 dollars per hour. Quite the opposite of tax increases, last year, three million DOLLARS monthly or 100 thousand dollars per day in taxes was foregone by our Administration in order to moderate the increase in the pump price of fuel to keep it as stable as possible. In just the last few weeks alone Belize has: played host to a senior delegation of executive directors from the World Bank, representing 68 countries; hosted the President of the IDB; served as the venue for the annual meeting of the IDB Governors for Central America and the Dominican Republic; concluded the most positive IMF Article IV Consultation in decades; hosted the Investment Conference: Initiative 20 by 20, Bonn Challenge, and AFOLU 2040 Joint Meeting on Restoring Lands; signed the first major disbursement of 10 million U.S. dollars from the United States MCC Agreement in support of education and reducing the cost of electricity; and, assumed the Chairmanship of SICA following our eventful Chairmanship of CARICOM. And in this month when we celebrate the achievements of women worldwide, we can report the successful implementation of the Women Economic Empowerment Project, which in its first full year of implementation, has already included 44 new initiatives worth more than 2.6 million dollars. How distant now do those bleak, final days of the UDP appear, those desperate times when the government had to borrow a million dollars a day to pay public officer salaries and borrow just to keep the lights on?

In his presentation, he propose to address five broad themes: First, to outline domestic and regional economic conditions; Second, to review financial sector and real economy developments Third, to report on the projected performance of this years Budget which ends on 31st March 2023; Fourth, to summarize the estimates for the new Budget, which starts on 1st April 2023; And lastly, to highlight select policies and reforms that can have a substantial impact on the economy, the public finances and, most importantly, the quality of life for the citizens we are sworn to serve.

Growth in the Latin American region averaged 3.9 percent in 2022, with the notable performances being the United States of America at growth rates 2 percent, Mexico at 1.7 percent and the Caribbean at 10.3 Growth in Central America moderated to 4.2 percent, down from the 5.5 percent in the previous year. In 2023, GDP growth in the United States is projected by the IMF at a paltry 1.4 percent while the global rate of economic growth will fall for the second consecutive year to 2.9 percent. In Belize, annual economic growth, according to the latest Statistical Institute of Belize data, reached 12.4 percent in 2022, an impressive jump and double what the IMF had predicted in last years Article Four Report. Notably, domestic exports rose by 46 million dollars, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by 15.7 million dollars for the first nine months of the year, and remittances by 14 million dollars. The Central Bank of Belize conservatively foresees net FDI, which totaled 261 million dollars in 2022, remaining above a yearly total of 200 million dollars right through to 2027. During the year, the net foreign assets and net domestic credit of the banking system the two largest components of money supply grew by 5.2 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.

Private sector borrowings climbed by 104 million dollars or 4.5 percent, nearly double last years outturn, and the largest annual increase since 2019. Bank liquidity inched up by 4.6 million dollars in 2022, following increases of 219.5 million dollars and 278.1 million dollars in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Weighted average lending rates decreased by two basis points to 8.62 percent during the year, while weighted average deposit rates slipped by 15 basis points to 1.90 percent. Total revenues and grants are projected to come in at 1,356 million dollars, of which 89 percent is tax revenue, 8 percent is non-tax revenue and 3 percent in capital revenue and grants. Actual revenue and grants exceeded the original budgeted amount by approximately 6.9 percent or 93 million dollars, an over-performance of 89 million dollars, which is attributed to tax revenues. On the expenditure side, total spending, including supplementary allocations approved during the Fiscal Year is expected to be 1,436 million dollars, which is 71 million dollars or 5 percent more than the original estimate.

Recurrent expenditure will come in 48 million dollars more than the original estimates while investments in capital projects will total approximately 397 million dollars, or an additional 119 million dollars.

This years budget will require total financing of about 178 million dollars, to be sourced from the following loan facilities: 120 million dollars from the IFI lenders, namely the IDB, the CDB, the World Bank, CABEI and the OPEC Fund, 30 million dollars from the Republic of China (Taiwan) and 28 million dollars from domestic borrowing. At the bottom line for this Fiscal Year, Government expects a Primary Surplus of half a percent of GDP or roughly 31 million dollars.

The Overall Deficit, which includes interest cost, is projected to be 1.38 percent or 80.5 million dollars, a level that is affordable.

These include, as thirteen examples, (1) ongoing upgrading of the Caracol Road, (2) ongoing upgrading of the Coastal Road, (3) upgrading of the Philip Goldson Highway and Remate Bypass Project, (4) upgrading of the Sarteneja Road and the construction of a new bridge at Laguna, (5) the new Haulover Bridge, (6) the completion of 3 miles of the Nago Bank Road under the Resilient Rural Belize Program, (7) the Natural Disaster Management Project & Climate Vulnerability Reduction Program, (8) a new tranche for the Social Investment Fund, (9) the Strengthening and Digitization of Tax Administration, (10) The Education Quality Improvement Project & the Education Reform Program, (11) the Sustainable Tourism Program, (12) the construction of police and defense facilities and the procurement of equipment including forensic equipment under the Belize Integral Security Program, and (13) the new loan program at the DFC designed specifically for MSMEs especially women led small businesses.

As if these were not already great achievements, through the Social Investment Fund we inaugurated six school projects, provided laptops for every child as a part of the Belize City South Side free-education program, constructed three polyclinics and built three new water systems all at a value of 14 million dollars. In December 2022, the total public debt stood at 4.031 million dollars or the equivalent of 64.1 percent of GDP. 2.716 million dollars represented loans to external lenders, while 1.314 million dollars was owed by the Government to domestic creditors. To meet the terms of this debt stock during this fiscal year, the Government paid some 112 million dollars in interest and 97.5 million dollars in principal repayments. Of every dollar in total revenue and grants for this budget year, Government therefore paid 8 cents in interest. The average interest rate on the public debt comes in just under 3 percent, though rising interest rates globally will nudge upward the cost of financing the public debt. Each year, going back 20 years, the IMF, based on what is called a debt sustainability analysis, has appraised Belizes public debt as unsustainable, which is double speak for credit distress and potential default. That being the case, there is a special sense of achievement to quote from this years IMF Article Four Concluding Statement: The Government has achieved a large reduction in the public debtfrom 133% of old GDP to 101% of new GDP, to 80% of GDP in 2021, to 64.1% in 2022. And the Statement provides the specific measures that resulted in this spectacular achievement of reducing the public debt from 133 percent of old GDP to 64.1 percent of new GDP, and I quote: the rebasing of national accounts, sizable fiscal consolidation, the debt for marine protection swap, strong GDP growth, expenditure containment including a temporary 10 percent cut to public sector wages and the suspension of wage increments during FY 2021/23, a strong recovery of revenue and a material discount on the debt owed to Venezuela under Petrocaribe. End of quote I invite those on the other side to consider this fact: the public debt surged by two billion dollars between 2009 and 2020, from 2.2 billion dollars to 4.2 billion dollars.

In contrast, this Administration, through its public debt management operations, has reduced the amount owed by the Government by over one billion dollars - 315 million US dollars in debt reduction attributable to the Super Bond/Blue Bond transaction, which includes the principal reinstatement Belize avoided; up to 163 million U.S. dollars of Petrocaribe debt from the recent reduction provided by Venezuela; and 39 million U.S. dollars in damages avoided as a result of last Septembers settlement of the compensation claims for Belize International Services Ltd (BISL) - a grand total of 517 million US dollars of debt reduction. And the IMF projects that debt to GDP will fall to 53 percent of GDP by 2028 while interest payments on debt will not exceed 1.8 percent of GDP, the current level of debt servicing costs.

Into the 5-year horizon, both the IMF and the Central Bank expect revenue and grants to average 23 percent of GDP; wages, pensions, goods and services and subsidies and transfers at 16 percent of GDP, debt servicing at just under 2 percent of the GDP and crucially, capital investments at 5.6 percent of GDP.

The Ministry of Finance projects total revenues and grants of 1.408 billion dollars comprised of tax revenues of 1.372 billion dollars, non-tax revenues of 112 million dollars, capital revenues of 5.5 million dollars and grants of 30 million dollars The sub-categories of tax revenues are as follows: (1) taxes on goods and services that account for 49 cents of every tax dollar, (2) taxes on income and profits accounting for 26 cents of every tax dollar, (3) taxes on international trade and transactions accounting for 18 cents of every tax dollar, (4) and taxes on property, accounting for less than 1 cent of each tax dollar collected.

In addition to recurrent costs, 383.4 million dollars is programmed for capital investments during the new Fiscal Year, of which some 158 million dollars are so called Capital 3 funding, drawn down from the various loans and grants already approved. The Budget for Fiscal Year 2023/24 is forecasted with a primary surplus of 24.3 million dollars or 0.39 percent of GDP. The overall deficit for Fiscal Year 2023/24 will be 1.41 percent of GDP, or some 88.1 million dollars. Budget financing requirements including amortizations will total 210 million dollars to be sourced from the following facilities: Loans from International Financial Institutions - 128 million dollars Grants from our Bilateral Partners - 30 million dollars Domestic Financing - 54 million dollars. New project funding will also flow to these programs: (1) The San Estevan Road Construction Project (2) The Strengthening Public Expenditure Management Project (3) The Lands and Civil Registry Digitization Project (4) The Sustainable and Inclusive MSME Program, and (5) The Trade and Investment Facilitation Project, among others.

The Fiscal Incentive Program is earmarking 20 percent of all government procurement tenders to MSMEs, that is 20 percent of the Governments Forecasted Budget for 2024/2025 equaling approximately 45 million dollars. This Financial Year 2022/23, the Government will have spent 95 million dollars on the pension plan for public officials.

To illustrate, this year the SSB is projected to collect some 140 million dollars in contributions and pay out some 110 million dollars in benefits. In Belize, the average replacement rate for public officers, when combining social security pension at 27.9 percent and public officers non-contributory pension at 67.5 percent, both of which public officers would be entitled to, is 95.4 percent, a whopping 33.5 percent above the regional average.

The IMF has presented their formula for public pension reform and sustainability which involves a contribution rate of 10 percent (of wages), half of which or 5 percent to be contributed by public officers; raising the current retirement age; and reducing the replacement rate from 67 percent to 50 percent, all to be gradually phased in over time.

These include: access to affordable credit for micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises the Credit Reporting Act the impending Credit Bureau and Collateral Registry the electronic invoice module and the modernization of the Fiscal Incentives Act the digitization of the land and the business registries the single investment window the digitization of firms and government services updating the national risk assessment and AML/CFT strategy steps to mitigate the financial integrity risks in the international financial sector and the legal framework for restricting activities involving virtual assets

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