Over a five-year period, the quarterly change in the price per share of common stock for...

Free

50.1K

Verified Solution

Question

Statistics

Over a five-year period, the quarterly change in the price pershare of common stock for a major oil company ranged from -8% to12%. A financial analyst wants to learn what can be expected forprice appreciation of this stock over the next two years. Using thefiveyear history as a basis, the analyst is willing to assume thatthe change in price for each quarter is uniformly distributedbetween -8% and 12%. Use simulation to provide information aboutthe price per share for the stock over the coming two-year period(eight quarters).

(a)Use the random numbers 0.52, 0.99, 0.12, 0.15, 0.50, 0.77,0.40, and 0.52 to simulate the quarterly price change for each ofthe eight quarters.
If required, round your answers to one decimal places. Forthose boxes in which you must enter subtractive or negative numbersuse a minus sign. (Example: -300)
QuarterrReturn %
10.52%
20.99%
30.12%
40.15%
50.5%
60.77%
70.4%
80.52%

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert
3.8 Ratings (555 Votes)

We assume that the change in price for each quarter is uniformly distributed between a=-8% and b=12%.

To simulate random numbers from a uniform distribution in the interval (a,b) we use the following steps

  • Generate r, a random number from uniform distribution in the interval (0,1)
  • a+(b-a)*r is a random number generated from a uniform distribution in the interval (a,b)

We can do the following calculations, knowing that r is drawn from uniform(0,1)

Quarter

r Return %
1 0.52 -8+(12-(-8))*0.52=2.4
2 0.99 -8+(12-(-8))*0.99=11.8
3 0.12 -8+(12-(-8))*0.12=-5.6
4 0.15 -8+(12-(-8))*0.15=-5
5 0.5 -8+(12-(-8))*0.5=2
6 0.77 -8+(12-(-8))*0.77=7.4
7 0.4 -8+(12-(-8))*0.4=0
8 0.52 -8+(12-(-8))*0.52=2.4

ans:  the simulated quarterly price change for each of the eight quarters is

Quarter

r Return %
1 0.52 2.4%
2 0.99 11.8%
3 0.12 -5.6%
4 0.15 -5%
5 0.5 2%
6 0.77 7.4%
7 0.4 0%
8 0.52 2.4%

Get Answers to Unlimited Questions

Join us to gain access to millions of questions and expert answers. Enjoy exclusive benefits tailored just for you!

Membership Benefits:
  • Unlimited Question Access with detailed Answers
  • Zin AI - 3 Million Words
  • 10 Dall-E 3 Images
  • 20 Plot Generations
  • Conversation with Dialogue Memory
  • No Ads, Ever!
  • Access to Our Best AI Platform: Flex AI - Your personal assistant for all your inquiries!
Become a Member

Other questions asked by students