Module Code: LUR 95000M QUESTION 2 ALAW Ltd has experienced a growth in its product markets over the last three years and is concemed about its capacity to deal with the increasing number of orders it is recelving. In order to better understand future patterns of demand for their products and devise an appropriate strategy the owners have asked you to analyse past trends and prepare forecast for the following year. Quarterly data on their sales revenue between 2018 and 2020 are presented below. Sales Revenue (E000's) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 24 86 44 26 2019 108 272 122 66 2020 234 600 240 184 Explain the different factors that account for fluctuations in time series data. (4 marks) . Outline under what conditions the additive and multiplicative time series models are applicable (4 marks) I. Plot the sales revenue figures and appropriate trendline on a graph and identify from this the choice of model for working out the seasonal component (8 marks) Iv. Explain the use of the mean squared error (MSE) measure in choosing the suitability of one seasonal model over the alternative one? (2 marks) Using the appropriate seasonal model complete the calculations that are required to produce the required forecast for quarters 1.2.3 and 4 of 2021 (8 marks) On the basis of your analysis explain the recommendation that you would make to ALAW Lid regarding its future plans (4 marks) (30 marks in total Total Section B 60 Marks Page of END w lenovo alaw itd has experienced a growth in its product markets over the last three years and is consemedabuut its capacity to deal with the increasing number of orders it is receiving in. order to better understand future patterns of demand for their producta and devise an appropriate strategy the owners have asked you to analyse past trends and prepare forecasts for the following year. quarterly data on their sales revenue between 2018 and 2020 are presented below. sales revenue (000's) 91 92 93 94 2018 24 86 44 26 2019 108 272 122 66 2020 234 600 240 184 1- explain the different factors that account for fluctuations in time series data. 2- outline under what conditions the additive and multiplicative time series models are applicable. 3- plot the sales revenue figures and appropriate trend line on a graph and identify from this the choice of model for working out the seasonal component 4 explain the use of the mean squared error (mse) measure in choosing the suitability of one seasonal model over the alternative one? 5- using the appropriate seasonal model, complete the calculations that are required to produce the required forecasts for quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 of 2021 6 on the basis of your analysis explain the recommendation that you would make to ALAW Ltd regarding its future plans Module Code: LUR 95000M QUESTION 2 ALAW Ltd has experienced a growth in its product markets over the last three years and is concemed about its capacity to deal with the increasing number of orders it is recelving. In order to better understand future patterns of demand for their products and devise an appropriate strategy the owners have asked you to analyse past trends and prepare forecast for the following year. Quarterly data on their sales revenue between 2018 and 2020 are presented below. Sales Revenue (E000's) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 24 86 44 26 2019 108 272 122 66 2020 234 600 240 184 Explain the different factors that account for fluctuations in time series data. (4 marks) . Outline under what conditions the additive and multiplicative time series models are applicable (4 marks) I. Plot the sales revenue figures and appropriate trendline on a graph and identify from this the choice of model for working out the seasonal component (8 marks) Iv. Explain the use of the mean squared error (MSE) measure in choosing the suitability of one seasonal model over the alternative one? (2 marks) Using the appropriate seasonal model complete the calculations that are required to produce the required forecast for quarters 1.2.3 and 4 of 2021 (8 marks) On the basis of your analysis explain the recommendation that you would make to ALAW Lid regarding its future plans (4 marks) (30 marks in total Total Section B 60 Marks Page of END w lenovo alaw itd has experienced a growth in its product markets over the last three years and is consemedabuut its capacity to deal with the increasing number of orders it is receiving in. order to better understand future patterns of demand for their producta and devise an appropriate strategy the owners have asked you to analyse past trends and prepare forecasts for the following year. quarterly data on their sales revenue between 2018 and 2020 are presented below. sales revenue (000's) 91 92 93 94 2018 24 86 44 26 2019 108 272 122 66 2020 234 600 240 184 1- explain the different factors that account for fluctuations in time series data. 2- outline under what conditions the additive and multiplicative time series models are applicable. 3- plot the sales revenue figures and appropriate trend line on a graph and identify from this the choice of model for working out the seasonal component 4 explain the use of the mean squared error (mse) measure in choosing the suitability of one seasonal model over the alternative one? 5- using the appropriate seasonal model, complete the calculations that are required to produce the required forecasts for quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4 of 2021 6 on the basis of your analysis explain the recommendation that you would make to ALAW Ltd regarding its future plans