Investment Timing Option: Decision-Tree Analysis The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil...

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Investment Timing Option: Decision-Tree Analysis The Karns OilCompany is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of landthat the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost$14 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil willgenerate positive net cash flows of $6.72 million a year at the endof each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairlyconfident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will havemore information about the local geology and about the price ofoil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the projectwould cost $16 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then thereis a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $7.56 million ayear for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $3.64 milliona year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 11%. Ifthe company chooses to drill today, what is the project's netpresent value? Negative value, if any, should be indicated by aminus sign. Enter your answers in millions. For example, an answerof $10,550,000 should be entered as 10.55. Do not roundintermediate calculations. Round your answer to two decimal places.$ million Using decision-tree analysis, does it make sense to wait2 years before deciding whether to drill?

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4.4 Ratings (732 Votes)

If they wait for 2 more year, then expected payoff= 7.56*90%+10%*3.64=$7.168 mn

NPV analysis if they start drilling today,

Year Cash Flow (in $ mn) Discounted Cash Flow ($ mn) (Cash Flow/1.11^year)
0                                      (14.00)                                            (14.00)
1                                          6.72                                                6.05
2                                          6.72                                                5.45
3                                          6.72                                                4.91
4                                          6.72                                                4.43
NPV (Total of discounted cash flow)                                                6.85

And, NPV analysis if they start drilling 2 year after:

Year Cash Flow (in $ mn) Discounted Cash Flow ($ mn) (Cash Flow/1.11^year)
2                                    (16.00)                                         (12.99)
3                                        7.17                                             5.24
4                                        7.17                                             4.72
5                                        7.17                                             4.25
6                                        7.17                                             3.83
NPV (Total of discounted cash flow)                                             5.06

So, As the NPV of drilling is more than if they start drilling 2 year after. So, they should start drilling now only instead of waiting for 2 more years.


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Investment Timing Option: Decision-Tree Analysis The Karns OilCompany is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of landthat the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost$14 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil willgenerate positive net cash flows of $6.72 million a year at the endof each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairlyconfident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will havemore information about the local geology and about the price ofoil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the projectwould cost $16 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then thereis a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $7.56 million ayear for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $3.64 milliona year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 11%. Ifthe company chooses to drill today, what is the project's netpresent value? Negative value, if any, should be indicated by aminus sign. Enter your answers in millions. For example, an answerof $10,550,000 should be entered as 10.55. Do not roundintermediate calculations. Round your answer to two decimal places.$ million Using decision-tree analysis, does it make sense to wait2 years before deciding whether to drill?

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