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Homework for FORECASTING Problem Solving

The Katonah Family Markets, operators of 5 supermarkets in Westchester County, approached Iona Universitys LaPenta School of Business to offer an Internship to an undergraduate business senior with the possibility of it becoming a full-time position. The purpose of the internship is to help the Chain forecast its demand for ALL (HE) Laundry Detergent. ALL (HE) is required for new high technology washing machines that cannot tolerate significant foaming so it is not a mainstream product and the Chain is having difficulty in carrying it on the shelves so it has lost some of its customers to other supermarket chains.

ALL (HE) comes in two sizes namely 20 washes and 49 washes (used to be 26 and 56 before Pandemic Shrinkflation!). Below you will find the sales data for this product by size:

Period Actual 20 Washes Forecast Actual 49 Washes Forecast

August 2021 12 4

September 2021 9 1

October 2021 9 0

November 2021 8 2

December 2021 11 3

January 2022 14 4

February 2022 8 2

March 2022 12 2

April 2022 11 4

May 2022 14 4

June 2022 8 3

July 2022 10 1

August 2022 13 11 3

September 2022 11 3 2

October 2022 ?? ? ?

Exponential Smoothing- (Excel-OM)

Use the actual and forecast data presented to you in the homework problem to calculate the February Forecast with Exponential Smoothing as a function of Alpha starting at = 0.1 and, increasing by 0.1 units, ending with = 0.9. Tabulate your results and then present them as a graph with as the x-axis and the Forecasts as the y-axis. If the Actual for February turns out to be 18, which value or values would be best to use? Type a short explanation of your decision on your spreadsheet.

Moving Average-- (Excel-OM)

Calculate the Moving Averages for n = 3,4, 5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 periods. Tabulate your results and then present them as a graph with n (the number of periods being averaged) as the x-axis vs. the Forecasts as the y-axis. If the actual for February turns out to be 15, which n(s) would be the best to use? Type a short explanation of your decision on your spreadsheet.

Weighted Moving Average-- (Excel-OM)

Calculate the Weighted Moving Averages for n = 3 and 4 periods for the weights shown below:

4,3,3

4,3,1

4,4,1

4,2,1

4,1,1

4,4,2

4,1,2

4,2,2

4,3,2

3,2,1

Tabulate your results. If the actual for February turns out to be 14, which combination of n and weights would be the best to use? Type a short explanation of your decision on your spreadsheet.

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