Forecasting and Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Following are the income statement and...
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Forecasting and Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Intel Corporation.
INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Statements of Income
Year Ended (In millions)
Dec. 25, 2010
Dec. 26, 2009
Dec. 27, 2008
Net revenue
$ 44,223
$ 35,127
$ 37,586
Cost of sales
15,132
15,566
16,742
Gross margin
29,091
19,561
20,844
Research and development
6,576
5,653
5,722
Marketing, general and administrative
6,309
7,931
5,452
Restructuring and asset impairment charges
--
231
710
Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles
18
35
6
Operating expenses
12,903
13,850
11,890
Operating income
16,188
5,711
8,954
Gains (losses) on equity method investments, net*
117
(147)
(1,380)
Gains (losses) on other equity investments, net
231
(23)
(376)
Interest and other, net
109
163
488
Income before taxes
16,645
5,704
7,686
Provisions for taxes
4,581
1,335
2,394
Net income
$ 12,064
$ 4,369
$ 5,292
*This should be considered as operating income.
INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Balance Sheets
As of Year-Ended (In millions, except par value)
Dec. 25, 2010
Dec. 26, 2009
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents
$ 5,498
$ 3,987
Short-term investments
11,294
5,285
Trading assets
5,093
4,648
Accounts receivables, net
2,667
2,273
Inventories
3,757
2,935
Deferred tax assets
1,888
1,216
Other current assets
1,614
813
Total current assets
31,811
21,157
Property, plant and equipment, net
17,899
17,225
Marketable equity securities
1,008
773
Other long-term investments**
3,026
4,179
Goodwill
4,531
4,421
Other long-term assets
5,111
5,340
Total assets
$63,386
$53,095
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Short-term debt
$38
$172
Accounts payable
2,190
1,883
Accrued compensation and benefits
2,888
2,448
Accrued advertising
1,007
773
Deferred income on shipments to distributors
622
593
Other accrued liabilities
2,482
1,722
Total current liabilities
9,227
7,591
Long-term income taxes payable
190
193
Long-term debt
1,677
2,049
Long-term deferred tax liabilities
926
555
Other long-term liabilities
1,236
1,003
Total liabilities
13,256
11,391
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred stock, $0.001 par value
--
--
Common stock, $0.001 par value, 10,000 shares authorized; 5,581 issued and 5,511 outstanding and capital in excess of par value
16,178
14,993
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
333
393
Retained earnings
33,619
26,318
Total stockholders' equity
50,130
41,704
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
$ 63,386
$ 53,095
** These investments are operating assets as they relate to associated companies. (a) Compute Intel's net operating assets (NOA) for year-end 2010. 2010 NOA = $
(b) Compute net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) for 2010, assuming a federal and state statutory tax rate of 37%.
HINT: Gains/losses on equity method investments are considered operating income. Round your answer to the nearest whole number. 2010 NOPAT = $
(c) Use the parsimonious forecast method, as shown in Analysis Insight box on page 13-4, to forecast Ciscos sales, NOPAT, and NOA for 2011 through 2014 and the terminal period using the following assumptions.
Sales growth
10%
Net operating profit margin (NOPM)
26%
Net operating asset turnover (NOAT) at fiscal year-end
1.50
Forecast the terminal period value using the assumptions above and assuming a terminal period growth of: 1%.
INTC
Reported
Forecast Horizon
Terminal
($ millions)
2010
2011 Est.
2012 Est.
2013 Est.
2014 Est.
Period
Sales (rounded two decimal places)
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Sales (rounded nearest whole number)
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NOPAT (rounded nearest whole number)*
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NOA (rounded nearest whole number)*
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* Use sales rounded to nearest whole number for this calculation.
(d) Estimate the value of a share of Intel common stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as of December 25, 2010; assume a discount rate (WACC) of 11%, common shares outstanding of 5,511 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(21,178) million (NNO is negative which means that Intel has net nonoperating investments).
Instructions:
Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.
Round all answers to the nearest whole number, except for discount factors and stock price per share.
Round discount factors to 5 decimal places.
Round stock price per share to two decimal places.
Use a negative sign with your NNO answer
INTC
Reported
Forecast Horizon
Terminal
($ millions)
2010
2011 Est.
2012 Est.
2013 Est.
2014 Est.
Period
DCF Model
Increase in NOA
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FCFF (NOPAT - Increase in NOA)
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Discount factor
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Present value of horizon FCFF
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Cumulative present value of horizon FCFF
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Present value of terminal FCFF
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Total firm value
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NNO
Answer
Firm equity value
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Shares outstanding (millions)
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Stock price per share
Answer
Answer & Explanation
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