Exhibit 45.8 provides some guidance on two scenarios: bullish and bearish cash flow forecasts. Based...
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Exhibit 45.8 provides some guidance on two scenarios: bullish and bearish cash flow forecasts. Based on the two scenarios, model cash flows for American Greetings for fiscal years 2012 through 2015 and estimate its terminal value. Based on the discounted cash flows associated with the forecast, what is the implied enterprise value of American Greetings and the corresponding share price?
WACC/Discount Rate Used : 8.43%
Marginal Tax Rate: 39%
American Greetings Valuation Model: Bullish Scenario (in millions of dollars) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Steady State 5.3% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Revenue Growth Operating Margin 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% NWC Turnover 5.02 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.50 Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Fixed Assets Turnover 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 Revenue EBIT 1,677 157 Exhibit 45.2 Exhibit 45.2 NWC Fixed Assets 334 859 Exhibit 45.3 Exhibit 45.3 NOPAT - Increases in NWC - Increases in Net Fixed Assets Free Cash Flow Terminal Value American Greetings Valuation Model: Bearish Scenario (in millions of dollars) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Steady State 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Revenue Growth 9.4% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% Operating Margin NWC Turnover Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) 5.02 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.50 Fixed Assets Tumover 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 Revenue EBIT 1,677 157 Exhibit 45.2 Exhibit 45.2 NWC Fixed Assets 334 859 Exhibit 45.3 Exhibit 45.3 NOPAT - Increases in NWC - Increases in Net Fixed Assets Free Cash Flow Terminal Value Bearish View 235 Bullish View Enterprise Value Long-Term Debt 235 Value of Equity Number of Shares Outstanding 38.3 million Implied Share Price 38.3 million American Greetings Valuation Model: Bullish Scenario (in millions of dollars) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Steady State 5.3% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Revenue Growth Operating Margin 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% NWC Turnover 5.02 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.50 Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bullish view (Exhibit 45.8) Fixed Assets Turnover 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 Revenue EBIT 1,677 157 Exhibit 45.2 Exhibit 45.2 NWC Fixed Assets 334 859 Exhibit 45.3 Exhibit 45.3 NOPAT - Increases in NWC - Increases in Net Fixed Assets Free Cash Flow Terminal Value American Greetings Valuation Model: Bearish Scenario (in millions of dollars) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Steady State 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Revenue Growth 9.4% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% Operating Margin NWC Turnover Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) Bearish view (Exhibit 45.8) 5.02 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.50 Fixed Assets Tumover 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 Revenue EBIT 1,677 157 Exhibit 45.2 Exhibit 45.2 NWC Fixed Assets 334 859 Exhibit 45.3 Exhibit 45.3 NOPAT - Increases in NWC - Increases in Net Fixed Assets Free Cash Flow Terminal Value Bearish View 235 Bullish View Enterprise Value Long-Term Debt 235 Value of Equity Number of Shares Outstanding 38.3 million Implied Share Price 38.3 million
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