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Domestic Debt 2020 Foreign Debt 2020 Nominal GDP 2020 Billion TL Exchange Rate 2020 Billion TL Billion $ P2020 2020 B2020 B2020 1000 120 5000 $1 = 7 TL The interest rate on foreign debt is detemined by US bonds market interest rate and risk premium of Turkey (which is measured by VIX (volatility index) and CDS (credit default swap)) by the following formula. The interest rate on foreign debt is determined by the US bonds market interest rate and risk premium of Turkey (which is measured by VIX (volatility index) and CDS (credit default swap)) by the following formula. VIX CDS = its + + 20 200 Assume that expected VIX index for 2021 will be 30 and expected CDS for Turkey is 400 and bond market interest rate is iis = %1,5 15% Inflation rate for 2021 Domestic interest rate on government bonds for 2021 it Exchange Rate for 2021 Et $1 = 8,4 TL G 900 Government Expenditures for 2021 T 1050 Tax Revenues for 2021 P2021Y2021 6000 Nominal GDP for 2021 In PY = In P + In Y d In PY dt d In P d In Y + dt dt 9 nom TT + 9 inflation rate real growth rate nominal growth rate -( P20219 Formula for change in Debt to GDP ratio 2021 A B2021 P2021Y Formula for change in Debt to GDP ratio 2021 According to expected values for 2021 given in the table, expected change in debt to GDP ratio in 2021 will be % Domestic Debt 2020 Foreign Debt 2020 Nominal GDP 2020 Billion TL Exchange Rate 2020 Billion TL Billion $ P2020 2020 B2020 B2020 1000 120 5000 $1 = 7 TL The interest rate on foreign debt is detemined by US bonds market interest rate and risk premium of Turkey (which is measured by VIX (volatility index) and CDS (credit default swap)) by the following formula. The interest rate on foreign debt is determined by the US bonds market interest rate and risk premium of Turkey (which is measured by VIX (volatility index) and CDS (credit default swap)) by the following formula. VIX CDS = its + + 20 200 Assume that expected VIX index for 2021 will be 30 and expected CDS for Turkey is 400 and bond market interest rate is iis = %1,5 15% Inflation rate for 2021 Domestic interest rate on government bonds for 2021 it Exchange Rate for 2021 Et $1 = 8,4 TL G 900 Government Expenditures for 2021 T 1050 Tax Revenues for 2021 P2021Y2021 6000 Nominal GDP for 2021 In PY = In P + In Y d In PY dt d In P d In Y + dt dt 9 nom TT + 9 inflation rate real growth rate nominal growth rate -( P20219 Formula for change in Debt to GDP ratio 2021 A B2021 P2021Y Formula for change in Debt to GDP ratio 2021 According to expected values for 2021 given in the table, expected change in debt to GDP ratio in 2021 will be %

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