Based on the Estimates in Exhibit 17 (this is the Management Scenario), and Exhibit 18...
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Based on the Estimates in Exhibit 17 (this is the Management Scenario), and Exhibit 18 (the Market Scenario), calculate the Free Cash Flows (FCF) for years 2010 to 2015.
FCF = NOPAT + Depreciation&Amortization - Capex Investment in NWC
In DCF models, NWC (Net Working Capital) does not include Cash in computing Current Assets, and also excludes any Interest-Bearing Debt (such as Current Portion of Long-Term Debt) in calculating Current Liabilities.
You will have to estimate the Capex needs in future. You may assume that Capex is a fixed %-age of Sales. For 2009, the information on Capex is given in the Cash-Flow Statement (Exhibit 8c).
Similarly, you may assume that NWC is a fixed %-age of Sales. This will give you the increase in NWC from year to year.
A B Exhibit 8 (continued) Genzyme Cash Flow Statement (in thousands of dollars) 2007 2008 2009 Cash from operations Net income Depreciation and amortization Stock-based compensation Change in operating assets Purchase of in-process R&D Charge for impaired assets Deferred income tax benefit Other operating cash flows Cash from operations $480,193 338,196 190,070 (117,862) 106,350 0 (106,140) 27,865 918,672 $421,081 374,664 187,596 (90,615) 0 2,036 (195,200) 59,613 759,175 $422,300 456,364 204,229 115,129 0 0 (95,737) 76,752 1,179,037 Cash from investing Capital expenditure Acquisitions, net of acquired cash Net sale (purchase) of investments Net sale (purchase) of equity securities Other investing activities Cash from investing (412,872) (342,456) 205,614 (1,282) (40,060) (591,056) (597,562) (16,561) 188,127 (80,062) (75,482) (581,540) (661,713) (51,336) 93,069 (4,366) (47,078) (671,424) Cash from financing Net long-term debt issued/repaid Issuance of common stock Repurchase of common stock Other financing activities Cash from financing (5,909) 285,762 (231,576) (1,051) 47,226 (693,961) 318,753 (143,012) 45,679 (472,541) (7,492) 100,521 (413,874) (15,771) (336,616) Net change in cash and equivalents $374,842 ($294,906) $170,997 Data source: Genzyme Corporation SEC 10-K filings, 2007-09. Exhibit 17 SANOFI-AVENTIS'S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME Genzyme-Financial Forecasts (Management Scenario) in Millions of US Dollars Projected 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 Revenue Sources Personalized Genetic Health Cardiometabolic and Renal Biosurgery Hematology and Oncology Other Pipeline (probability adjusted) $1,775 $1,011 $514 $285 $493 $0 $1,775 $1,061 $591 $385 $370 $0 $2,307 $1,115 $679 $519 $381 $0 $2,884 $1,170 $781 $701 $392 $25 $3,460 $1,229 $977 $911 $404 $500 $3,979 $983 $1,172 $1,139 $416 $1,100 $4,457 $786 $1,348 $1,367 $428 $1,500 Revenues $4,077 $4,181 $5,001 $5,953 $7,481 $8,789 $9,886 COGS (excludes depreciation) ($1,196) ($1,164) ($1,317) ($1,479) ($1,746) ($1,919) ($2,159) General & Administrative ($1,429) ($1,359) ($1,756) ($2,593) ($2,916) ($1,550) ($1,050) ($2,207) ($1,571) R&D ($865) ($878) ($1,250) ($1,846) ($2,076) Service and R&D Revenues $439 $418 $500 $595 $748 $879 $989 Depreciation and Amortization ($456) ($468) ($666) ($837) ($984) ($1,107) ($560) ($50) Other Expenses ($66) ($209) ($60) ($75) $0 $0 Operating Income (EBIT) $504 $521 $973 $1,338 $1,793 $2,326 $2,617 Taxes ($121) ($182) ($341) ($468) ($628) ($814) ($916) NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) $382 $339 $633 $869 $1,165 $1,512 $1,701 Source: Analyst reports and author estimates. Exhibit 18 SANOFI-AVENTIS'S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME Genzyme-Financial Forecasts (Market Scenario) in Millions of US Dollars Projected 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 Revenue Sources Personalized Genetic Health Cardiometabolic and Renal Biosurgery Hematology and Oncology Other Pipeline (probability adjusted) $1,775 $1,011 $514 $285 $493 $0 $1,775 $1,041 $591 $385 $345 $0 $2,307 $1,072 $679 $500 $355 $0 $2,768 $1,105 $781 $625 $366 $20 $3,100 $1,138 $898 $750 $377 $70 $3,472 $853 $1,033 $862 $388 $220 $3,889 $597 $1,157 $992 $400 $300 Revenues $4,077 $4,136 $4,914 $5,665 $6,334 $6,830 $7,335 COGS (excludes depreciation) ($1,196) ($1,294) ($1,602) ($1,407) ($1,671) ($1,151) ($1,344) ($869) ($1,478) ($1,868) General & Administrative ($1,429) ($1,523) ($1,491) ($2,015) ($1,434) ($2,164) ($1,540) R&D ($865) ($1,032) ($1,190) ($1,330) Service and R&D Revenues $439 $414 $491 $567 $633 $683 $734 Depreciation and Amortization ($456) ($463) ($550) ($634) ($709) ($765) ($821) Other Expenses ($66) ($207) ($49) ($57) ($63) $0 $0 Operating Income (EBIT) $504 $516 $957 $1,273 $1,518 $1,808 $1,942 Taxes ($121) ($180) ($335) ($445) ($531) ($633) ($680) NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) $382 $335 $622 $827 $987 $1,175 $1,262 Source: Analyst reports and author estimates. A B Exhibit 8 (continued) Genzyme Cash Flow Statement (in thousands of dollars) 2007 2008 2009 Cash from operations Net income Depreciation and amortization Stock-based compensation Change in operating assets Purchase of in-process R&D Charge for impaired assets Deferred income tax benefit Other operating cash flows Cash from operations $480,193 338,196 190,070 (117,862) 106,350 0 (106,140) 27,865 918,672 $421,081 374,664 187,596 (90,615) 0 2,036 (195,200) 59,613 759,175 $422,300 456,364 204,229 115,129 0 0 (95,737) 76,752 1,179,037 Cash from investing Capital expenditure Acquisitions, net of acquired cash Net sale (purchase) of investments Net sale (purchase) of equity securities Other investing activities Cash from investing (412,872) (342,456) 205,614 (1,282) (40,060) (591,056) (597,562) (16,561) 188,127 (80,062) (75,482) (581,540) (661,713) (51,336) 93,069 (4,366) (47,078) (671,424) Cash from financing Net long-term debt issued/repaid Issuance of common stock Repurchase of common stock Other financing activities Cash from financing (5,909) 285,762 (231,576) (1,051) 47,226 (693,961) 318,753 (143,012) 45,679 (472,541) (7,492) 100,521 (413,874) (15,771) (336,616) Net change in cash and equivalents $374,842 ($294,906) $170,997 Data source: Genzyme Corporation SEC 10-K filings, 2007-09. Exhibit 17 SANOFI-AVENTIS'S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME Genzyme-Financial Forecasts (Management Scenario) in Millions of US Dollars Projected 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 Revenue Sources Personalized Genetic Health Cardiometabolic and Renal Biosurgery Hematology and Oncology Other Pipeline (probability adjusted) $1,775 $1,011 $514 $285 $493 $0 $1,775 $1,061 $591 $385 $370 $0 $2,307 $1,115 $679 $519 $381 $0 $2,884 $1,170 $781 $701 $392 $25 $3,460 $1,229 $977 $911 $404 $500 $3,979 $983 $1,172 $1,139 $416 $1,100 $4,457 $786 $1,348 $1,367 $428 $1,500 Revenues $4,077 $4,181 $5,001 $5,953 $7,481 $8,789 $9,886 COGS (excludes depreciation) ($1,196) ($1,164) ($1,317) ($1,479) ($1,746) ($1,919) ($2,159) General & Administrative ($1,429) ($1,359) ($1,756) ($2,593) ($2,916) ($1,550) ($1,050) ($2,207) ($1,571) R&D ($865) ($878) ($1,250) ($1,846) ($2,076) Service and R&D Revenues $439 $418 $500 $595 $748 $879 $989 Depreciation and Amortization ($456) ($468) ($666) ($837) ($984) ($1,107) ($560) ($50) Other Expenses ($66) ($209) ($60) ($75) $0 $0 Operating Income (EBIT) $504 $521 $973 $1,338 $1,793 $2,326 $2,617 Taxes ($121) ($182) ($341) ($468) ($628) ($814) ($916) NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) $382 $339 $633 $869 $1,165 $1,512 $1,701 Source: Analyst reports and author estimates. Exhibit 18 SANOFI-AVENTIS'S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME Genzyme-Financial Forecasts (Market Scenario) in Millions of US Dollars Projected 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 Revenue Sources Personalized Genetic Health Cardiometabolic and Renal Biosurgery Hematology and Oncology Other Pipeline (probability adjusted) $1,775 $1,011 $514 $285 $493 $0 $1,775 $1,041 $591 $385 $345 $0 $2,307 $1,072 $679 $500 $355 $0 $2,768 $1,105 $781 $625 $366 $20 $3,100 $1,138 $898 $750 $377 $70 $3,472 $853 $1,033 $862 $388 $220 $3,889 $597 $1,157 $992 $400 $300 Revenues $4,077 $4,136 $4,914 $5,665 $6,334 $6,830 $7,335 COGS (excludes depreciation) ($1,196) ($1,294) ($1,602) ($1,407) ($1,671) ($1,151) ($1,344) ($869) ($1,478) ($1,868) General & Administrative ($1,429) ($1,523) ($1,491) ($2,015) ($1,434) ($2,164) ($1,540) R&D ($865) ($1,032) ($1,190) ($1,330) Service and R&D Revenues $439 $414 $491 $567 $633 $683 $734 Depreciation and Amortization ($456) ($463) ($550) ($634) ($709) ($765) ($821) Other Expenses ($66) ($207) ($49) ($57) ($63) $0 $0 Operating Income (EBIT) $504 $516 $957 $1,273 $1,518 $1,808 $1,942 Taxes ($121) ($180) ($335) ($445) ($531) ($633) ($680) NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) $382 $335 $622 $827 $987 $1,175 $1,262 Source: Analyst reports and author estimates
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