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Approximately two months before harvesting a wheat field a farmer can observe the state of the crop and can observe whether it has been attacked by mildew. If there is an attack, the farmer should decide on a treatment with fungicides.

Draw both a perfect recall influence diagram and a LIMID with the following nodes:

Six chance nodes:

The current state of the crop, Q with states fair (f), average (a), good (g) and very good (v)

The current mildew-situation, M with states no, little (l), moderate (m) and severe (s)

The mildew situation after fungicide-treatment, M*, which has the same states as M, and which has the same distribution as M if there is no fungicide-treatment.

The state of the crop at harvest time, H with the states from Q plus rotten (r), bad (b) and poor (p)

The observation, OQ, of Q

The observation, OM, of M

One action node,

A (modeling the fungicide treatment) with actions no, light (l), moderate (m) and heavy (h).

Two utility nodes:

C (the cost of treatment) and U (the price obtained at harvest time).

Explain the reason for the additional edges in the LIMID.

Enter reasonable values in the CPTs and the utility tables.

Run one of your influence diagrams and show the results for the following evidence presentations:

(OQ = f, OM = s), (OQ = v, OM = l), (OQ = g, OM = m)

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