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A genetic test is used to determine if people have a predisposition for thrombosis, which is...

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Basic Math

A genetic test is used to determine if people have apredisposition for thrombosis, which is the formation of a bloodclot inside a blood vessel that obstructs the flow of blood throughthe circulatory system. It is believed that 3% of people have thispredisposition. The test is 95% accurate for those who have thepredisposition, and 97% accurate for those who do not have thepredisposition.

Simulate the results for administering this test to a populationof 100,000 individuals.

a) How many individuals in this hypothetical population areexpected to test positive for the predisposition?

b) Estimate the probability that an individual who testspositive has the predisposition.

c) Suppose that two new tests have been developed. Test Aimproves accuracy for those who have the predisposition to 98%(while accuracy for those who do not have the predispositionremains at 97%), while Test B improves accuracy for those who donot have the predisposition to 99% (while accuracy for those who dohave the predisposition remains at 95%).

Which test offers a higher increase in the probability that aperson who tests positive actually has the predisposition? Explainthe reasoning behind your answer. Limit your answer to at mostseven sentences.

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