A. ArmaCo must determine whether or not to drill for oil at the Northern part of...

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Operations Management

A. ArmaCo must determine whether or not to drill for oil at theNorthern part of Jubail. It costs $100,000 to drill, and if oil isfound, the value is estimated to be $600,000. At present, ArmaCobelieves there is a 45% chance that the field contains oil with theprofit payoffs give in the table below. Alternatives State ofNature Oil Dry Drill 500 –100 No Drill 0 0 a. [0.5 Mark] Show thedecision tree for the situation. b. Which alternative should theArmaco choose using: i. [1 Mark] the optimistic approach ii. [1Mark] the conservative approach iii. [1 Mark] the minimax regretapproach. c. [1 Mark] Determine which alternative should be chosenbased on expected value. d. [1 Mark] Determine the expected valuewith perfect information. e. [1 Mark] Determine the expected valueof the perfect information. B. Before drilling, ArmaCo can hire(for $10,000) a geologist to obtain more information about thelikelihood that the field will contain oil. There is a 50% chancethat the geologist will issue a favorable report and a 50% chanceof an unfavorable report. Given a favorable report, there is an 80%chance that the field contains oil. Given an unfavorable report,there is a 10% chance that the field contains oil. f. [1 Mark] Showthe decision tree for the situation. g. [1 Mark] Determine ArmaCo’soptimal course of action. h. [0.5 Mark] How much is the expectedprofit? i. [1 Mark] Determine the Expected Value of SampleInformation.

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Here the object is to determine the optimal course of action tofollow by the company O and determine EVSI and EVPIThe following is the information providedThe Cost of drilling 100000If oil found then value is 600000Present the chance of field contains oil is 45Hiring cost of a Geologist is 10000The chance of favorable report by Geologist is 50The chance of failure report by Geologist is 50If the report is favorable then chance that the field containsoil is 80If the report is failure then chance that the field contains oilis 10Using the above information first draw a decision tree whichcovers all of the above pointsThe Decision tree has to be drawn using excel Use excel AddinsPrecision treeDecision tree Then find the value of the assets at each node    See Answer
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