7. The director of career advising at Rutgers want to use decision analysis to provide...

Free

90.2K

Verified Solution

Question

General Management

   7. The director of career advising at Rutgers wantto use decision analysis to provide information to help studentsdecide which degree program they should pursue. The director hasset up the following payoff table for 6 of the most popular andsuccessful degree programs at RU that shows the estimated(projected) 5-year gross income that an average student graduatingwith each degree for 4 future economic conditions can expect:

Economic  

Conditions

Degree Program

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Nursing

115000

155000

190000

180000

Law

140000

175000

200000

220000

Finance

95000

150000

180000

250000

Computer Programming

120000

140000

150000

170000

Information Systems

85000

120000

150000

180000

Music and Theater

60000

80000

100000

100000

Determine the best degree program (a decision under uncertainty)in terms of the projected income, using the following decisioncriteria:

  • Maximax
  • Maximin
  • Equal Likelihood
  • Minimax Regret
  • Hurwicz with ? = .25

If further it has been determined that the probability of eachfuture economic condition is given by:

p(recession)=.45, p(average)=.35, p(good)=.15, p(robust)=.05.  

Use expected value to determine the best degree program (adecision under risk presuming equally likely futures) in terms ofprojected income. If you were the director of career advising whichdegree program would you recommend (in particular, do you agreewith optimizing the expected payoff or some other criteria)?

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert
3.8 Ratings (344 Votes)

1. Maximax criteria is choosing the maximum of maximum output under each alternatives

which is Max of

190000
220000
250000
170000
180000
100000

= 250000, which corresponds to  Finance

2.Maximin criteria chooses maximum of minimum output under each alternative which is

Max

115000
140000
95000
120000
85000
60000

=140000, which corresponds to Law.

3. Equal likelihood means the best average out of all options

which is

max

160000
183750
168750
145000
133750
85000

which is 183750, which corresponds to Law.

4. Minimax regret is choosing the minimum of maximum regret value.

Regret table

Degree Program Recession Average Good Robust
Nursing 25000 20000 10000 70000
Law 0 0 0 30000
Finance 45000 25000 20000 0
Computer Programming 20000 35000 50000 80000
Information Systems 55000 55000 50000 70000
Music and Theater 80000 95000 100000 150000

Minimax regret =

Min

70000
30000
45000
80000
70000
150000

which is 30000 which corresponds with Law.

Note: As per policies, I can answer first 4 parts of a problem. Inconvenience is regretted.


Get Answers to Unlimited Questions

Join us to gain access to millions of questions and expert answers. Enjoy exclusive benefits tailored just for you!

Membership Benefits:
  • Unlimited Question Access with detailed Answers
  • Zin AI - 3 Million Words
  • 10 Dall-E 3 Images
  • 20 Plot Generations
  • Conversation with Dialogue Memory
  • No Ads, Ever!
  • Access to Our Best AI Platform: Flex AI - Your personal assistant for all your inquiries!
Become a Member

Other questions asked by students