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38 The probability that an individual randomly selected from a particular population has a certain...

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38 The probability that an individual randomly selected from a particular population has a certain disease is 05 A diagnostic test correctly detects the presence of the disease 98 of the time and correctly detects the absence of the disease 99 of the time If the test is applied twice the two test results are independent and both are positive what is the posterior probability that the selected individual has the disease Hint Tree diagram with first generation branches corresponding to Disease and No Disease and second and third generation branches corresponding to results of the two tests

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