3-20 Mickey Lawson is considering investing some money that he inherited. The following payoff table...
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Finance
3-20 Mickey Lawson is considering investing some money that he inherited. The following payoff table gives the profits that would be realized during the next year for each of three investment alternatives Mickey is considering:
State of Nature
Decision Alternative
Good Economy
Poor Economy
Stock Market
80,000
-20,000
Bonds
30,000
20,000
CDs
23,000
23,000
Profitability
0.5
0.5
a. what decision would maximize expected profits?
EMV stock market= 80,000 (0.5) +(-20,000) (0.5)
=40,000-10,000
=30,000
EMV bonds= 30,000(0.5) +(20,000) (0.5)
=15,000 + 10,000
=25,000
EMV CDS= 23,000(0.5) +23,000(0.5)
=11,500 +11,500
=23,000
The firm will choose to invest in the stock market.
b. what is the maximum amount that should be paid for a perfect forecast of the economy?
EMV with perfect information= 80,000(0.5) +23,000(0.5)
=51,500
EMV PI= EMV with perfect information MAXEMV without perfect information
=51,500-30,000
=21,500
The maximum amount that is paid for a perfect forecast by is 21,500.
Just need help with this part- however, you now need to perform create an Excel Spreadsheet and use formulas for this problem (make sure cell references are unique to your table). Provide all techniques practiced previously: 5 Techniques for Decisions Making under Uncertainty, EMV, EOL, and EVPI.
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