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10 (Requires StatTools) If the simple exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.2 is applied to this time series, which of the following is the best conclusion?

a. Probably because of the consistent upward trend, the majority of the forecasts, about 66%, are on the high side.

b. The MAPE, an average of 60 absolute percentage errors, indicates that the forecasts are consistently on the high side by about 17.7%.

c. The forecasts for the 12 months of 2017 are all equal to the last estimated level.

d. All of these choices are true.

A 1 Month 2 Jan-12 3 Feb-12 4 Mar-12 5 Apr-12 6 May-12 7 Jun-12 8 Jul-12 9 Aug-12 10 Sep-12 11 Oct-12 12 Nov-12 13 Dec-12 14 Jan-13 15 Feb-13 16 Mar-13 17 Apr-13 18 May-13 19 Jun-13 20 Jul-13 21 Aug-13 22 Sep-13 23 Oct-13 24 Nov-13 25 Dec-13 26 Jan-14 27 Feb-14 28 Mar-14 29 Apr-14 B Value 10955 12530 13582 10699 12274 13429 14050 8032 13060 13370 5914 9922 13689 13943 6994 17692 13518 11454 11402 10564 14307 7903 16726 18293 18194 17174 24235 16813 29 Apr-14 30 May-14 31 Jun-14 32 Jul-14 33 Aug-14 34 Sep-14 35 Oct-14 36 Nov-14 37 Dec-14 38 Jan-15 39 Feb-15 40 Mar-15 41 Apr-15 42 May-15 43 Jun-15 44 Jul-15 45 Aug-15 46 Sep-15 47 Oct-15 48 Nov-15 49 Dec-15 50 Jan-16 51 Feb-16 52 Mar-16 53 Apr-16 54 May-16 55 Jun-16 56 Jul-16 57 Aug-16 58 Sep-16 59 Oct-16 60 Nov-16 61 Dec-16 16813 19020 18165 16856 15724 20235 13686 21015 16185 22608 15621 21358 19039 19837 24378 23375 23747 18771 23270 20124 22756 20494 21600 25946 23446 25897 26621 24799 30494 24537 20827 26331 25129 A 1 Month 2 Jan-12 3 Feb-12 4 Mar-12 5 Apr-12 6 May-12 7 Jun-12 8 Jul-12 9 Aug-12 10 Sep-12 11 Oct-12 12 Nov-12 13 Dec-12 14 Jan-13 15 Feb-13 16 Mar-13 17 Apr-13 18 May-13 19 Jun-13 20 Jul-13 21 Aug-13 22 Sep-13 23 Oct-13 24 Nov-13 25 Dec-13 26 Jan-14 27 Feb-14 28 Mar-14 29 Apr-14 B Value 10955 12530 13582 10699 12274 13429 14050 8032 13060 13370 5914 9922 13689 13943 6994 17692 13518 11454 11402 10564 14307 7903 16726 18293 18194 17174 24235 16813 29 Apr-14 30 May-14 31 Jun-14 32 Jul-14 33 Aug-14 34 Sep-14 35 Oct-14 36 Nov-14 37 Dec-14 38 Jan-15 39 Feb-15 40 Mar-15 41 Apr-15 42 May-15 43 Jun-15 44 Jul-15 45 Aug-15 46 Sep-15 47 Oct-15 48 Nov-15 49 Dec-15 50 Jan-16 51 Feb-16 52 Mar-16 53 Apr-16 54 May-16 55 Jun-16 56 Jul-16 57 Aug-16 58 Sep-16 59 Oct-16 60 Nov-16 61 Dec-16 16813 19020 18165 16856 15724 20235 13686 21015 16185 22608 15621 21358 19039 19837 24378 23375 23747 18771 23270 20124 22756 20494 21600 25946 23446 25897 26621 24799 30494 24537 20827 26331 25129

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