90.2K

Verified Solution

Link Copied!

1. What conclusions can you draw from this forecast? (Consider today's forward price and compare it to the spot price forecasted at the end of February, as well as the lower and upper confidence bound. What may this suggest?)

2. Comment on whether or not the past is a good predictor of the future.

Date Spot Price Forecast (Spot Price) Lower Confidence Bound (Spot Price) Upper Confidence Bound (Spot Price) Forecast (Forward Price) Lower Confidence Bound (Forward Price) Upper Confidence Bound (Forward Price) 1,222.37 1,214.69 1,221.11 1,223.99 1,221.96 Forward Price (Feb 2019) 1,228.70 1.219.90 1,229.80 1,230.40 1,226.00 26-Nov-18 27-Nov-18 28-Nov-18 29-Nov-18 30-Nov-18 1-Dec-18 2-Dec-18 3-Dec-18 4-Dec-18 5-Dec-18 6-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 8-Dec-18 9-Dec-18 10-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 12-Dec-18 13-Dec-18 14-Dec-18 15-Dec-18 16-Dec-18 17-Dec-18 18-Dec-18 19-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 21-Dec-18 22-Dec-18 23-Dec-18 24-Dec-18 25-Dec-18 26-Dec-18 27-Dec-18 28-Dec-18 29-Dec-18 30-Dec-18 31-Dec-18 1-Jan-19 2-Jan-19 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 5-Jan-19 6-Jan-19 7-Jan-19 8-Jan-19 9-Jan-19 10-Jan-19 1,221.96 1,223.10 1,223.45 1,223.80 1,224.15 1,224.50 1,224.84 1,225.19 1,225.54 1,225.89 1,226.24 1,226.58 1,226.93 1,227.28 1,227.63 1,227.98 1,228.33 1,228.67 1,229.02 1,229.37 1,229.72 1,230.07 1,230.42 1,230.76 1,231.11 1,231.46 1,231.81 1,232.16 1,232.50 1,232.85 1,233.20 1,233.55 1,233.90 1,234.25 1,234.59 1,234.94 1,235.29 1,235.64 1,235.99 1,236.33 1,236.68 1,237.03 1,221.96 1,210.60 1,210.56 1,210.53 1,210.51 1,210.49 1,210.48 1,210.48 1,210.48 1,210.49 1,210.50 1,210.51 1,210.53 1,210.56 1,210.59 1,210.62 1,210.65 1,210.69 1,210.73 1,210.78 1,210.82 1,210.87 1,210.92 1,210.98 1,211.03 1,211.09 1,211.15 1,211.21 1,211.28 1,211.34 1,211.41 1,211.48 1,211.55 1,211.62 1,211.70 1,211.77 1,211.85 1,211.92 1,212.00 1,212.08 1,212.16 1,212.24 1,221.96 1,235.60 1,236.34 1,237.07 1,237.79 1,238.50 1,239.21 1,239.91 1,240.60 1,241.29 1,241.98 1,242.66 1,243.33 1,244.00 1,244.67 1,245.34 1,246.00 1,246.66 1,247.31 1,247.96 1,248.61 1,249.26 1,249.91 1,250.55 1,251.19 1,251.83 1,252.46 1,253.10 1,253.73 1,254.36 1,254.99 1,255.62 1,256.24 1,256.87 1,257.49 1,258.11 1,258.73 1,259.35 1,259.97 1,260.59 1,261.20 1,261.82 1,226.00 1,228.95 1,229.31 1,229.67 1,230.02 1,230.38 1,230.73 1,231.09 1,231.45 1,231.80 1,232.16 1,232.51 1,232.87 1,233.22 1,233.58 1,233.94 1,234.29 1,234.65 1,235.00 1,235.36 1,235.72 1,236.07 1,236.43 1,236.78 1,237.14 1,237.49 1,237.85 1,238.21 1,238.56 1,238.92 1,239.27 1,239.63 1,239.98 1,240.34 1,240.70 1,241.05 1,241.41 1,241.76 1,242.12 1,242.48 1,242.83 1,243.19 1,226.00 1,215.16 1,215.09 1,215.02 1,214.97 1,214.92 1,214.88 1,214.85 1,214.82 1,214.80 1,214.79 1,214.77 1,214.77 1,214.77 1,214.77 1,214.78 1,214.79 1,214.80 1,214.82 1,214.84 1,214.86 1,214.88 1,214.91 1,214.94 1,214.98 1,215.01 1,215.05 1,215.09 1,215.13 1,215.18 1,215.22 1,215.27 1,215.32 1,215.37 1,215.42 1,215.48 1,215.53 1,215.59 1,215.65 1,215.71 1,215.77 1,215.83 1,226.00 1,242.75 1,243.54 1,244.31 1,245.08 1,245.83 1,246.59 1,247.33 1,248.07 1,248.80 1,249.53 1,250.25 1,250.97 1,251.68 1,252.39 1,253.10 1,253.80 1,254.50 1,255.19 1,255.88 1,256.57 1,257.26 1,257.94 1,258.62 1,259.30 1,259.97 1,260.65 1,261.32 1,261.99 1,262.66 1,263.32 1,263.99 1,264.65 1,265.31 1,265.97 1,266.63 1,267.28 1,267.94 1,268.59 1,269.25 1,269.90 1,270.55 1,243.19 1,243.54 1,243.90 1,244.25 1,244.61 1,244.97 1,245.32 1,245.68 1,246.03 1,246.39 1,246.75 10-Jan-19 11-Jan-19 12-Jan-19 13-Jan-19 14-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 16-Jan-19 17-Jan-19 18-Jan-19 19-Jan-19 20-Jan-19 21-Jan-19 22-Jan-19 23-Jan-19 24-Jan-19 25-Jan-19 26-Jan-19 27-Jan-19 28-Jan-19 29-Jan-19 30-Jan-19 31-Jan-19 1-Feb-19 2-Feb-19 3-Feb-19 4-Feb-19 5-Feb-19 6-Feb-19 7-Feb-19 8-Feb-19 9-Feb-19 10-Feb-19 11-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 13-Feb-19 14-Feb-19 15-Feb-19 16-Feb-19 17-Feb-19 18-Feb-19 19-Feb-19 20-Feb-19 21-Feb-19 22-Feb-19 23-Feb-19 24-Feb-19 25-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 27-Feb-19 28-Feb-19 1,237.03 1,237.38 1,237.73 1,238.08 1,238.42 1,238.77 1,239.12 1,239.47 1,239.82 1,240.16 1,240.51 1,240.86 1,241.21 1,241.56 1,241.91 1,242.25 1,242.60 1,242.95 1,243.30 1,243.65 1,244.00 1,244.34 1,244.69 1,245.04 1,245.39 1,245.74 1,246.08 1,246.43 1,246.78 1,247.13 1,247.48 1,247.83 1,248.17 1,248.52 1,248.87 1,249.22 1,249.57 1,249.91 1,250.26 1,250.61 1,250.96 1,251.31 1,251.66 1,252.00 1,252.35 1.252.70 1,253.05 1,253.40 1,253.74 1,254.09 1,212.24 1,212.33 1,212.41 1,212.49 1,212.58 1,212.67 1,212.75 1,212.84 1,212.93 1,213.02 1,213.11 1,213.20 1,213.29 1,213.39 1,213.48 1,213.57 1,213.67 1,213.76 1,213.86 1,213.95 1,214.05 1,214.15 1,214.24 1,214.34 1,214.44 1,214.54 1,214.64 1,214.74 1,214.84 1,214.94 1,215.04 1,215.14 1,215.24 1,215.34 1,215.44 1,215.55 1,215.65 1,215.75 1,215.85 1,215.96 1,216.06 1,216.17 1,216.27 1,216.37 1,216.48 1,216.58 1,216.69 1,216.79 1,216.90 1,217.00 1,261.82 1,262.43 1,263.04 1,263.66 1,264.27 1,264.88 1,265.49 1,266.09 1,266.70 1,267.31 1,267.91 1,268.52 1,269.12 1,269.73 1,270.33 1,270.93 1,271.54 1,272.14 1,272.74 1,273.34 1,273.94 1,274.54 1,275.14 1,275.74 1,276.34 1,276.93 1,277.53 1,278.13 1,278.72 1,279.32 1,279.92 1,280.51 1,281.11 1,281.70 1,282.30 1,282.89 1,283.48 1,284.08 1,284.67 1,285.26 1,285.86 1,286.45 1,287.04 1,287.63 1,288.23 1,288.82 1,289.41 1,290.00 1,290.59 1,291.18 1,247.10 1,247.46 1,247.81 1,248.17 1,248.52 1,248.88 1,249.24 1,249.59 1,249.95 1,250.30 1,250.66 1,251.01 1,251.37 1,251.73 1,252.08 1,252.44 1,252.79 1,253.15 1,253.51 1,253.86 1,254.22 1,254.57 1,254.93 1,255.28 1,255.64 1,256.00 1,256.35 1,256.71 1,257.06 1,257.42 1,257.78 1,258.13 1,258.49 1,258.84 1,259,20 1,259.55 1,259.91 1,260.27 1,260.62 1,215.83 1,215.89 1,215.95 1,216.02 1,216.09 1,216.15 1,216.22 1,216.29 1,216.36 1,216.43 1,216.50 1,216.57 1,216.64 1,216.72 1,216.79 1,216.87 1,216.94 1,217.02 1,217.10 1,217.17 1,217.25 1,217.33 1,217.41 1,217.49 1,217.57 1,217.65 1,217.73 1,217.81 1,217.89 1,217.97 1,218.06 1,218.14 1,218.22 1,218.31 1,218.39 1,218.48 1,218.56 1,218.64 1,218.73 1,218.82 1,218.90 1,218.99 1,219.07 1,219.16 1,219.25 1,219.33 1,219.42 1,219.51 1,219.60 1,219.68 1,270.55 1,271.20 1,271.84 1,272.49 1,273.14 1,273.78 1,274.42 1,275.07 1,275.71 1,276.35 1,276.99 1,277.63 1,278,27 1,278.91 1,279.54 1,280.18 1,280.82 1,281.45 1,282.09 1,282.72 1,283.36 1,283.99 1,284.62 1,285.25 1,285.89 1,286.52 1,287.15 1,287.78 1,288.41 1,289.04 1,289.67 1,290.29 1,290.92 1,291.55 1,292.18 1,292.81 1,293.43 1,294.06 1,294.69 1,295.31 1,295.94 1,296.56 1,297.19 1,297.81 1,298.44 1,299.06 1,299.69 1,300.31 1,300.94 1,301.56 1,160.00 1,180.00 1.200,00 1.220,00 1,240.00 1,260.00 1,280.00 1,300.00 1,320.00 26-Nov-18 28-Nov-18 30-Nov-18 2-Dec-18 4-Dec-18 6-Dec-18 8-Dec-18 10-Dec-18 12-Dec-18 14-Dec-18 16-Dec-18 18-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 22-Dec-18 24-Dec-18 26-Dec-18 28-Dec-18 30-Dec-18 1-Jan-19 3-Jan-19 5-Jan-19 7-Jan-19 Spot Price Upper Confidence Bound (Spot Price) -Lower Confidence Bound (Forward Price) Upper Confidence Bound (Forward Price) -Forward Price (Feb 2019) - Forecast (Spot Price) -Forecast (Forward Price) -Lower Confidence Bound (Spot Price) 9-Jan-19 Forecast of Spot and Forward Price of Gold (USD per oz.) 11-Jan-19 13-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 17-Jan-19 19-Jan-19 21-Jan-19 23-Jan-19 25-Jan-19 27-Jan-19 29-Jan-19 31-Jan-19 2-Feb-19 4-Feb-19 6-Feb-19 8-Feb-19 10-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 14-Feb-19 16-Feb-19 18-Feb-19 20-Feb-19 22-Feb-19 24-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 28-Feb-19 Date Spot Price Forecast (Spot Price) Lower Confidence Bound (Spot Price) Upper Confidence Bound (Spot Price) Forecast (Forward Price) Lower Confidence Bound (Forward Price) Upper Confidence Bound (Forward Price) 1,222.37 1,214.69 1,221.11 1,223.99 1,221.96 Forward Price (Feb 2019) 1,228.70 1.219.90 1,229.80 1,230.40 1,226.00 26-Nov-18 27-Nov-18 28-Nov-18 29-Nov-18 30-Nov-18 1-Dec-18 2-Dec-18 3-Dec-18 4-Dec-18 5-Dec-18 6-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 8-Dec-18 9-Dec-18 10-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 12-Dec-18 13-Dec-18 14-Dec-18 15-Dec-18 16-Dec-18 17-Dec-18 18-Dec-18 19-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 21-Dec-18 22-Dec-18 23-Dec-18 24-Dec-18 25-Dec-18 26-Dec-18 27-Dec-18 28-Dec-18 29-Dec-18 30-Dec-18 31-Dec-18 1-Jan-19 2-Jan-19 3-Jan-19 4-Jan-19 5-Jan-19 6-Jan-19 7-Jan-19 8-Jan-19 9-Jan-19 10-Jan-19 1,221.96 1,223.10 1,223.45 1,223.80 1,224.15 1,224.50 1,224.84 1,225.19 1,225.54 1,225.89 1,226.24 1,226.58 1,226.93 1,227.28 1,227.63 1,227.98 1,228.33 1,228.67 1,229.02 1,229.37 1,229.72 1,230.07 1,230.42 1,230.76 1,231.11 1,231.46 1,231.81 1,232.16 1,232.50 1,232.85 1,233.20 1,233.55 1,233.90 1,234.25 1,234.59 1,234.94 1,235.29 1,235.64 1,235.99 1,236.33 1,236.68 1,237.03 1,221.96 1,210.60 1,210.56 1,210.53 1,210.51 1,210.49 1,210.48 1,210.48 1,210.48 1,210.49 1,210.50 1,210.51 1,210.53 1,210.56 1,210.59 1,210.62 1,210.65 1,210.69 1,210.73 1,210.78 1,210.82 1,210.87 1,210.92 1,210.98 1,211.03 1,211.09 1,211.15 1,211.21 1,211.28 1,211.34 1,211.41 1,211.48 1,211.55 1,211.62 1,211.70 1,211.77 1,211.85 1,211.92 1,212.00 1,212.08 1,212.16 1,212.24 1,221.96 1,235.60 1,236.34 1,237.07 1,237.79 1,238.50 1,239.21 1,239.91 1,240.60 1,241.29 1,241.98 1,242.66 1,243.33 1,244.00 1,244.67 1,245.34 1,246.00 1,246.66 1,247.31 1,247.96 1,248.61 1,249.26 1,249.91 1,250.55 1,251.19 1,251.83 1,252.46 1,253.10 1,253.73 1,254.36 1,254.99 1,255.62 1,256.24 1,256.87 1,257.49 1,258.11 1,258.73 1,259.35 1,259.97 1,260.59 1,261.20 1,261.82 1,226.00 1,228.95 1,229.31 1,229.67 1,230.02 1,230.38 1,230.73 1,231.09 1,231.45 1,231.80 1,232.16 1,232.51 1,232.87 1,233.22 1,233.58 1,233.94 1,234.29 1,234.65 1,235.00 1,235.36 1,235.72 1,236.07 1,236.43 1,236.78 1,237.14 1,237.49 1,237.85 1,238.21 1,238.56 1,238.92 1,239.27 1,239.63 1,239.98 1,240.34 1,240.70 1,241.05 1,241.41 1,241.76 1,242.12 1,242.48 1,242.83 1,243.19 1,226.00 1,215.16 1,215.09 1,215.02 1,214.97 1,214.92 1,214.88 1,214.85 1,214.82 1,214.80 1,214.79 1,214.77 1,214.77 1,214.77 1,214.77 1,214.78 1,214.79 1,214.80 1,214.82 1,214.84 1,214.86 1,214.88 1,214.91 1,214.94 1,214.98 1,215.01 1,215.05 1,215.09 1,215.13 1,215.18 1,215.22 1,215.27 1,215.32 1,215.37 1,215.42 1,215.48 1,215.53 1,215.59 1,215.65 1,215.71 1,215.77 1,215.83 1,226.00 1,242.75 1,243.54 1,244.31 1,245.08 1,245.83 1,246.59 1,247.33 1,248.07 1,248.80 1,249.53 1,250.25 1,250.97 1,251.68 1,252.39 1,253.10 1,253.80 1,254.50 1,255.19 1,255.88 1,256.57 1,257.26 1,257.94 1,258.62 1,259.30 1,259.97 1,260.65 1,261.32 1,261.99 1,262.66 1,263.32 1,263.99 1,264.65 1,265.31 1,265.97 1,266.63 1,267.28 1,267.94 1,268.59 1,269.25 1,269.90 1,270.55 1,243.19 1,243.54 1,243.90 1,244.25 1,244.61 1,244.97 1,245.32 1,245.68 1,246.03 1,246.39 1,246.75 10-Jan-19 11-Jan-19 12-Jan-19 13-Jan-19 14-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 16-Jan-19 17-Jan-19 18-Jan-19 19-Jan-19 20-Jan-19 21-Jan-19 22-Jan-19 23-Jan-19 24-Jan-19 25-Jan-19 26-Jan-19 27-Jan-19 28-Jan-19 29-Jan-19 30-Jan-19 31-Jan-19 1-Feb-19 2-Feb-19 3-Feb-19 4-Feb-19 5-Feb-19 6-Feb-19 7-Feb-19 8-Feb-19 9-Feb-19 10-Feb-19 11-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 13-Feb-19 14-Feb-19 15-Feb-19 16-Feb-19 17-Feb-19 18-Feb-19 19-Feb-19 20-Feb-19 21-Feb-19 22-Feb-19 23-Feb-19 24-Feb-19 25-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 27-Feb-19 28-Feb-19 1,237.03 1,237.38 1,237.73 1,238.08 1,238.42 1,238.77 1,239.12 1,239.47 1,239.82 1,240.16 1,240.51 1,240.86 1,241.21 1,241.56 1,241.91 1,242.25 1,242.60 1,242.95 1,243.30 1,243.65 1,244.00 1,244.34 1,244.69 1,245.04 1,245.39 1,245.74 1,246.08 1,246.43 1,246.78 1,247.13 1,247.48 1,247.83 1,248.17 1,248.52 1,248.87 1,249.22 1,249.57 1,249.91 1,250.26 1,250.61 1,250.96 1,251.31 1,251.66 1,252.00 1,252.35 1.252.70 1,253.05 1,253.40 1,253.74 1,254.09 1,212.24 1,212.33 1,212.41 1,212.49 1,212.58 1,212.67 1,212.75 1,212.84 1,212.93 1,213.02 1,213.11 1,213.20 1,213.29 1,213.39 1,213.48 1,213.57 1,213.67 1,213.76 1,213.86 1,213.95 1,214.05 1,214.15 1,214.24 1,214.34 1,214.44 1,214.54 1,214.64 1,214.74 1,214.84 1,214.94 1,215.04 1,215.14 1,215.24 1,215.34 1,215.44 1,215.55 1,215.65 1,215.75 1,215.85 1,215.96 1,216.06 1,216.17 1,216.27 1,216.37 1,216.48 1,216.58 1,216.69 1,216.79 1,216.90 1,217.00 1,261.82 1,262.43 1,263.04 1,263.66 1,264.27 1,264.88 1,265.49 1,266.09 1,266.70 1,267.31 1,267.91 1,268.52 1,269.12 1,269.73 1,270.33 1,270.93 1,271.54 1,272.14 1,272.74 1,273.34 1,273.94 1,274.54 1,275.14 1,275.74 1,276.34 1,276.93 1,277.53 1,278.13 1,278.72 1,279.32 1,279.92 1,280.51 1,281.11 1,281.70 1,282.30 1,282.89 1,283.48 1,284.08 1,284.67 1,285.26 1,285.86 1,286.45 1,287.04 1,287.63 1,288.23 1,288.82 1,289.41 1,290.00 1,290.59 1,291.18 1,247.10 1,247.46 1,247.81 1,248.17 1,248.52 1,248.88 1,249.24 1,249.59 1,249.95 1,250.30 1,250.66 1,251.01 1,251.37 1,251.73 1,252.08 1,252.44 1,252.79 1,253.15 1,253.51 1,253.86 1,254.22 1,254.57 1,254.93 1,255.28 1,255.64 1,256.00 1,256.35 1,256.71 1,257.06 1,257.42 1,257.78 1,258.13 1,258.49 1,258.84 1,259,20 1,259.55 1,259.91 1,260.27 1,260.62 1,215.83 1,215.89 1,215.95 1,216.02 1,216.09 1,216.15 1,216.22 1,216.29 1,216.36 1,216.43 1,216.50 1,216.57 1,216.64 1,216.72 1,216.79 1,216.87 1,216.94 1,217.02 1,217.10 1,217.17 1,217.25 1,217.33 1,217.41 1,217.49 1,217.57 1,217.65 1,217.73 1,217.81 1,217.89 1,217.97 1,218.06 1,218.14 1,218.22 1,218.31 1,218.39 1,218.48 1,218.56 1,218.64 1,218.73 1,218.82 1,218.90 1,218.99 1,219.07 1,219.16 1,219.25 1,219.33 1,219.42 1,219.51 1,219.60 1,219.68 1,270.55 1,271.20 1,271.84 1,272.49 1,273.14 1,273.78 1,274.42 1,275.07 1,275.71 1,276.35 1,276.99 1,277.63 1,278,27 1,278.91 1,279.54 1,280.18 1,280.82 1,281.45 1,282.09 1,282.72 1,283.36 1,283.99 1,284.62 1,285.25 1,285.89 1,286.52 1,287.15 1,287.78 1,288.41 1,289.04 1,289.67 1,290.29 1,290.92 1,291.55 1,292.18 1,292.81 1,293.43 1,294.06 1,294.69 1,295.31 1,295.94 1,296.56 1,297.19 1,297.81 1,298.44 1,299.06 1,299.69 1,300.31 1,300.94 1,301.56 1,160.00 1,180.00 1.200,00 1.220,00 1,240.00 1,260.00 1,280.00 1,300.00 1,320.00 26-Nov-18 28-Nov-18 30-Nov-18 2-Dec-18 4-Dec-18 6-Dec-18 8-Dec-18 10-Dec-18 12-Dec-18 14-Dec-18 16-Dec-18 18-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 22-Dec-18 24-Dec-18 26-Dec-18 28-Dec-18 30-Dec-18 1-Jan-19 3-Jan-19 5-Jan-19 7-Jan-19 Spot Price Upper Confidence Bound (Spot Price) -Lower Confidence Bound (Forward Price) Upper Confidence Bound (Forward Price) -Forward Price (Feb 2019) - Forecast (Spot Price) -Forecast (Forward Price) -Lower Confidence Bound (Spot Price) 9-Jan-19 Forecast of Spot and Forward Price of Gold (USD per oz.) 11-Jan-19 13-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 17-Jan-19 19-Jan-19 21-Jan-19 23-Jan-19 25-Jan-19 27-Jan-19 29-Jan-19 31-Jan-19 2-Feb-19 4-Feb-19 6-Feb-19 8-Feb-19 10-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 14-Feb-19 16-Feb-19 18-Feb-19 20-Feb-19 22-Feb-19 24-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 28-Feb-19

Answer & Explanation Solved by verified expert

See Answer